CSI 300 Fell 0.45%
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This week, the A-share market maintained a “rebound attempt” pattern, with major indices consolidating and overall sentiment becoming more cautious. The SSE Index(000001) fell by 0.51%, failing to continue its previous rebound trend, with trading volume shrinking further, down 17.47% compared to the 50-day average. Currently, the index is about 3% above the 200-day moving average but has retreated 8.56% from its one-year high. The CSI 300(000300)also saw a decline of 0.45%, facing similar high-level pressures, with current prices still 13.57% lower than their one-year highs, indicating that structural repairs have yet to form a cohesive force.
The Shenzhen Index(399001)and ChiNext(399006) recorded losses of 1.16% and 1.66% respectively, with significant pressure on the tech growth sectors. Both indices are trading below their 20-day moving averages, showing insufficient short-term momentum. Coupled with continued reduction in trading volumes this week, risk appetite remains low in the short term. TheHang Seng Index(HSI) fell 1.52% this week. Although it performed weaker than the main A-share indices, it still has 10.98% room above its 200-day moving average, indicating that the rebound seen in Hong Kong stocks since the beginning of the year has not been disrupted.
In overseas markets, U.S. stocks continued their strong performance. The Nasdaq Composite(0NDQC) rose 0.72%, while the S & P 500 Index(0S&P5) edged up 0.06%. Both indices are operating 7.09% and 4.61% above their respective 50-day moving averages, maintaining momentum. Despite a 0.9% drop in U.S. retail sales for May, the largest monthly decline since 2023, initial jobless claims remained at 245,000, indicating a stable labor market. This week, the Federal Reserve maintained the upper limit of the federal funds rate at 4.5%, as expected. However, amid tensions in the Middle East and a decline in consumption, market expectations regarding potential interest rate cuts in the second half of the year have become increasingly divergent.
Regarding geopolitical risks, the White House stated that it would decide within two weeks whether to take military action against Iran, while Iran warned third parties not to intervene, raising concerns over an escalation of conflict between Iran and Israel. This situation has sparked worries about oil prices, safe-haven assets, and global inflation. Meanwhile, EIA crude oil inventories dropped by over 11 million barrels, far exceeding expectations, adding uncertainty to the rebalancing of global energy supply and demand.
From a macroeconomic perspective, China’s total electricity consumption in May increased by 4.4% YoY, continuing its growth trend but slightly lower than last month, indicating that the foundation for economic recovery remains unstable. The RMB exchange rate has stabilized somewhat under the backdrop of Deutsche Bank’s chief economist mentioning “improvement in economic fundamentals”. Additionally, the advancement of reforms in the STAR Market and the establishment of a “Sci-Tech Growth Layer” are expected to enhance the valuation premium of innovative enterprises, which will be beneficial for the continuation of structural market conditions in the medium to long term. Moreover, the phased deployment of 13.8 billion yuan of central fiscal “national subsidies” is expected to boost the configuration heat of related industrial chains, particularly supporting new energy vehicles and green energy sectors.
In terms of sector performance, Telecom-Fiber Optics(G3552IG.CN) led with a weekly gain of 5.76%, benefiting from accelerated expansion in AI, data communication, and intelligent infrastructure. Active trading and continuous capital inflows characterized the industry. Banks-Foreign(G1440IG.CN) and Banks-Money Center(G6020IG.CN) rose by 3.86% and 3.81% respectively, performing steadily against a backdrop of recent RMB exchange rate stabilization and increased international settlement demands, reflecting renewed preference for defensive attributes and stable returns.
This week, the TOP33 portfolio faced relatively higher pressure, recording an overall decline of -2.10%, with only nine stocks rising, showcasing significant structural differentiation. Among them,Eoptolink Tech.’A'(300502) was the best performer, achieving a weekly gain of 9.96%. The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of optical modules, widely used in high-growth sectors such as data centers, communication networks, and smart grids, currently benefiting from accelerated investments in AI and computing infrastructure. Eoptolink has an EPS Rating of 99, an RS Rating of 93, and an O’Neil Score of 74, demonstrating enhanced fundamentals and price momentum, typical characteristics of a strong stock. Despite its industry ranking at 112th place, the stock’s performance has clearly outperformed its industry peers.
Overall, the market remains in the early stages of consolidation and repair. Although there is still some distance to annual highs for indices, insufficient trading volume and rapid rotation of hot spots continue to constrain trend continuity. Structural opportunities will continue to depend on industrial logic support and earnings realization capabilities. Investors should focus on leading stocks with high O’Neil Scores, good capital inflows, and those situated in strong industries (industry rankings 1-40).
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published on June 20, 2025