CSI 300 Rises 1.99%
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A-shares have maintained their “uptrend.” Major indices continued to strengthen this week, although trading volume remained low. The market appears to be advancing steadily following trend confirmation; in the short term, attention is needed on whether increasing volume and the broadening of leadership can be sustained. The SSE Index(000001) rose +1.64% this week, holding firm above the 5/10/20-day moving averages and reclaiming the 50-day moving average by approximately +0.23%. It is currently about +4.40% above the 200-day moving average, indicating a healthier trend structure than before. However, volume on the last trading day was approximately -15.09% relative to the 50-day average volume, suggesting cautious capital deployment. The CSI 300(000300) rose +1.99% for the week, simultaneously moving above the 5/10/20/50-day moving averages, with weightings providing stronger support for the trend, though volume on the final day remained down approximately -25.72%. The growth side remains strong; the Shenzhen Index(399001) rose +4.02% for the week to hit a yearly high, and the ChiNext(399006) rose +6.65% for the week, also hitting a yearly high. Both are significantly above their 50/200-day moving averages, indicating that risk appetite is still recovering.
Regarding Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index(HSI) rose 1.03% for the week, moving above the 5/10/20/50/200-day moving averages (approximately +1.07% above the 200-day), but volume on the last day was approximately -13.51% compared to the 50-day average, indicating a continuing recovery but with weak momentum. Overseas, the Nasdaq Composite(0NDQC) rose 5.24% for the week with volume higher than the 50-day average, while the S & P 500 Index(0S&P5) rose 3.29% for the week, hitting a yearly high.
Recent data indicates that the US economy continues to present a combination of “employment resilience + energy supply disruption,” placing monetary policy in a dilemma: fearing slowing growth while unable to take inflation risks lightly. Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11 fell to 207,000, significantly lower than the expected 215,000 and down from the previous 218,000, indicating that the labor market has not shown a trend of weakness and employment continues to support demand. Meanwhile, EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending April 10 unexpectedly fell by 913,000 barrels (forecast was an increase of 154,000 barrels; previous was an increase of 3.081 million barrels). The shift in inventories from “accumulation” to “drawdown” amplifies market speculation regarding tight supply, while the situation in the Middle East and statements regarding “blockades” reinforce tail risks for energy prices. Global institutions warning of a potential “pause” in recovery and the reshaping of energy and AI investment landscapes essentially signal that if oil prices and geopolitical risk premiums remain high, global financing costs and corporate cost bases will face simultaneous pressure, leading to greater volatility in risk assets.
On the policy front, the Federal Reserve maintains a stance of “data dependence and cautious communication.” Senior Fed officials are reluctant to provide a clear interest rate path in advance but emphasize that rate cuts will occur in the long term. Simultaneously, rising expectations of political interference in central bank independence in the US may discount market expectations for future policy predictability, thereby increasing uncertainty in financial conditions. In Europe, ECB officials emphasize that releasing interest rate signals in advance is inadvisable, adopting a “hawkish but stationary” stance amidst uncertainty. This reflects that Europe also faces the pincer movement of weakening growth and resurgent inflation, tending to stabilize expectations before discussing easing after the intensification of external conflicts.
The domestic policy main line is clearer: building on the “good start” of 5% YoY GDP growth in Q1 with domestic demand contributing over 80%, the focus of macro-control has shifted to “stabilizing domestic demand, promoting investment efficiency, stabilizing finance and expectations, and cultivating new growth drivers.” Regarding monetary and financing, the central bank will conduct 500 billion yuan of outright reverse repo operations on April 15. Coupled with the increased proportion of corporate bonds and equity financing in Q1 and greater support for technology and digital sectors, this indicates that while maintaining reasonable and ample liquidity, policy emphasizes directing funds towards technological innovation and the digital economy through direct financing and structural guidance to improve financing structures and enhance growth momentum. Regarding institutional supply, the General Office of the State Council issued the “Opinions on Deepening the Reform of the Investment Approval System,” aiming to improve project implementation efficiency and reduce institutional transaction costs through “delegation, regulation, and service.” Coordinating with the reform of industry associations and chambers of commerce promoted by the General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, this will help improve industry governance and self-discipline, reducing low-level repetitive competition.
Demand-side and structural-side measures are advancing together: The Ministry of Commerce proposed promoting the expansion and upgrading of service consumption and laying out service trade innovation platforms, fitting the “domestic demand-driven” pattern. Documents from two departments supporting urban renewal, along with signals of comprehensive price increases in first-tier cities, indicate that real estate-related policies lean more towards “improving supply and stock renewal, stabilizing expectations and transactions.” However, the interview of individual projects in Shenzhen for “aggressive promotions” also signals that the policy bottom line is to prevent disorderly price wars and excessive market volatility. On the industrial front, the SASAC is promoting better development of central enterprises in the low-altitude economy sector, and the technology service industry is welcoming a “window of opportunity,” echoing the industrial restructuring brought by AI large models. As external energy and geopolitical uncertainties rise, China is more inclined to hedge external demand and financial volatility by expanding domestic demand and enhancing industrial competitiveness, while reducing the impact of external uncertainty on business operations through rules and institutional arrangements (such as regulations against improper extraterritorial jurisdiction).
Next week, 2,363 stocks will release earnings reports. The market is entering earnings season with significantly increased density. Individual stock volatility and divergence are expected to amplify noticeably, and the focus of trading will shift more rapidly from thematic expansion to performance realization and guidance quality.
At the sector level, capital in the “uptrend” is beginning to diffuse from the singular AI main line towards “AI infrastructure + manufacturing recovery + consumption/export-related small industries.” The top three performing sectors this week show a structural characteristic of “toolchain catch-up – optical interconnection continuation – electronic category diffusion.” Bldg-Hand Tools(G3548IG.CN) rose approximately 8.99% for the week; with only 6 constituents and a trading scale of about 1.942 billion, it leans more towards small-industry catch-up and individual stock drivers. Sustainability usually depends on volume breakouts and pullback support from leaders, and orders and profit margin realization are needed to verify the quality of the rise during earnings season. Telecom-Fiber Optics(G3552IG.CN) rose approximately 8.63% for the week, with trading volume remaining high, related to high-speed optical connection demand from data center interconnects and AI clusters. The sector still possesses trend capital attributes; after the rapid rise, short-term attention is needed on whether volume continues to expand and the support strength of order visibility and delivery rhythms on valuations. Elec-Misc Products(G3662IG.CN) rose approximately 8.12% for the week, with broad coverage reflecting capital diffusion from the “computing power chain” to wider electronic categories, where internal sector divergence may increase.
Regarding individual stocks and portfolios, the Top 33 rose an average of +7.47% this week, with 26 rising and 7 falling. The profit-making effect continues, but divergence is beginning to emerge. The leading gainer is Sharetronic Data Tech(300857), with an O’Neil Score of 71, RS Rating of 98, EPS Rating of 99, Acc/Dis Rating of A, and Industry Rating of 142. Its earnings growth and relative strength are both at high levels, but the lagging industry rating implies limited sustained capital support at the industry level. During earnings season, it relies more on the company’s own order fulfillment, delivery, and profit margin realization to maintain strength.
In the “uptrend” phase, one can increase stock selection density and look for right-side opportunities. Externally, geopolitics and oil prices may still amplify inflation and interest rate expectation volatility. Internally, entering the high-density earnings season, performance and guidance will be the core variables determining relative individual stock strength. Operationally, prioritize focusing on leaders within the top 1–40 industry strength rankings with verifiable fundamentals, an Acc/Dis Rating of no lower than C, and healthy technical patterns, while setting risk control ranges to manage drawdowns and improve capital efficiency.
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published on April 17, 2026