CSI 300 fell by 0.25%
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This week, the A-share market remained in a “Rally Attempt” phase, with major indices showing weak and choppy performance. The SSE Index(000001) and the CSI 300(000300) both declined marginally by 0.25%, failing to break through short-term resistance. Trading volume continued to trend below average levels, indicating a lack of investor confidence. Both indices are now down 8.09% and 13.17%, respectively, from their 1-year highs, and the market currently lacks incremental capital inflows.
Growth-style stocks exhibited mixed performance. The Shenzhen Index(399001) fell 0.6% this week, showing clear short-term pressure, while the ChiNext(399006) rose 0.22% against the broader trend, reclaiming its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages. However, it still remains more than 20% below its 1-year high, structurally still in a recovery phase.
In Hong Kong, the market consolidated near recent highs. The Hang Seng Index(HSI) rose 0.42%, with trading volume rebounding to 122.5% of the 50-day average. The index has now rebounded more than 45% from its YTD low, and the technical setup remains strong.
On the macro front, China’s May CPI declined 0.1% y/y, while PPI fell 3.3% y/y — the largest drop in over a year — reflecting imported deflationary pressures and a temporary weakening in domestic commodity prices. In trade, China’s total import-export value grew 2.5% y/y over the first five months of the year, with exports up 7.2% and imports down 3.8%, indicating that external demand remains stronger than domestic demand.
On the policy side, the central government released a plan to support Shenzhen in deepening its pilot comprehensive reforms. Measures include relaxing cross-border capital flow restrictions between Shenzhen and Hong Kong, supporting the circulation of data as a factor of production, and promoting innovation in the low-altitude economy — all of which are expected to benefit structurally growing sectors. In addition, China and the U.S. reached a preliminary framework agreement in recent trade talks. China resumed the issuance of rare earth export licenses, and the U.S. partially relaxed restrictions on high-tech product exports. While core structural issues remain unresolved, the agreement has provided short-term sentiment support.
In the U.S., the Nasdaq Composite(0NDQC) and S & P 500 Index(0S&P5) rose 0.68% and 0.75%, respectively. Both indices are now down only 2.68% and 1.66%, respectively, from their 1-year highs, and continue to trade within a strong uptrend channel.
On the Fed front, although the June FOMC meeting may keep rates unchanged, soft data from May CPI, PPI, and initial jobless claims have led traders to increase bets on two rate cuts this year. Market pricing now reflects a 58.5% probability of a rate cut in September. Repeated calls from Donald Trump for rate cuts have further fueled market speculation.
At the industry level, the top performer within the O’Neil industry classification was Medical-Whlsle Drg/Suppl(G5022IG.CN), which rose 8.25% this week. This was followed by Mining-Gold/Silver/Gems(G1040IG.CN) and Retail/Whlsle-Jewelry(G5971IG.CN), up 6.48% and 5.02%, respectively. Safe-haven assets and select consumer-related sectors became the short-term allocation focus for capital.
The Top 33 portfolio recorded an average weekly gain of 0.82%, with 18 stocks advancing. The performance dispersion slightly narrowed. The best-performing stock was Zhejiang Cfmoto Power(603129), industy for Leisure-Products(G3949IG.CN), which gained 12.42% for the week. The company focuses on large-displacement water-cooled engine systems and has seen a significant increase in global four-wheeler market share. Its O’Neil ratings are as follows: O’Neil Rating 84, EPS Rating 99, RS Rating 88, Industry Group Rank 13 — reflecting a confluence of strong fundamentals and trend.
Overall, the A-share market’s rebound momentum has slightly weakened, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of trading volume and the effectiveness of policy implementation. The Hong Kong market continues its bullish structure, while the U.S. market remains resilient near highs. Investors are advised to continue focusing on quality stocks within the top 40 O’Neil industry groups, combining high EPS and RS ratings to identify targets that align fundamentals with technical strength, thereby capturing structural allocation opportunities.
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Notice: Information contained herein is not and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell securities. It is for educational purposes only.
published on June 13, 2025