CSI 300 Falls 0.62%
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The A-share market maintains its upward trend, and the current environment is in a phase of “favorable conditions, considering seeking investment opportunities.” This week, major indices exhibited resilient volatility with a slightly bullish bias. Structural divergence remains pronounced, while trading volumes stayed at relatively active levels, indicating that investor risk appetite remains in a moderately positive range.
At the index level, the SSE Index(000001) rose by 0.84% this week and traded above its 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages. In terms of volume, the final trading day saw a 33.76% increase compared to the 50-day average, though total weekly volume declined to about 87% of last week’s level—suggesting some cooling in momentum-chasing behavior during the rally, but without significant selling pressure. The CSI 300(000300) declined by 0.62%, as heavyweight sectors faced relative pressure. Nevertheless, the index remains 9.96% above its 200-day moving average, and volume on the last day surged by 51.85%, reflecting institutional portfolio rebalancing and structural reallocation amid the pullback. The Shenzhen Index(399001) gained 1.11%, approaching a one-year high and standing 21.38% above its 200-day moving average. Meanwhile, the ChiNext(399006) posted a modest 0.34% correction but remains significantly 26.85% above its 200-day moving average, confirming a solid intermediate-term uptrend.
Overseas, major U.S. equity indices experienced mild pullbacks. The Nasdaq Composite(0NDQC) fell 0.34%, and the S & P 500 Index(0S&P5) dropped 0.38%, yet both continue to trade above their 200-day moving averages, preserving their long-term bullish trends. Recent data showed U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending January 17 totaled 200,000, below the expected 210,000, underscoring labor market resilience. Core PCE inflation in November rose 2.8% year-over-year, unchanged from the prior reading—indicating that disinflation is continuing, albeit at a measured pace. Against this backdrop, markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady in the near term, with “holding pat” becoming the baseline assumption. On the energy front, the EIA reported a 3.602 million-barrel build in U.S. crude inventories for the week ending January 16—well above expectations—exerting short-term downward pressure on oil prices and partially alleviating concerns about imported inflation.
Meanwhile, international policy and geopolitical economic uncertainties continue to simmer. Japanese government bond markets have seen heightened volatility, dubbed the “Truss moment” by market participants, highlighting potential stress points for highly indebted economies operating in a high-rate environment. Strategic competition between Europe and the U.S. across trade, technology, and geopolitics remains cyclical, though recent interactions have leaned more toward negotiation and mutual checks than outright confrontation—keeping systemic risks contained in the near term. At the 2026 Winter Davos Forum, key themes centered on AI, energy transition, and global supply chain restructuring, reinforcing the strategic logic of allocating toward technological advancement and industrial upgrading over the medium to long term.
Domestically, macroeconomic and policy certainty has notably improved. According to data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics, GDP grew by 5% year-over-year in 2025, remaining within the targeted range for two consecutive years—demonstrating strong economic resilience. From a policy standpoint, the People’s Bank of China explicitly stated it will maintain an appropriately accommodative monetary stance in 2026, with room left for further RRR cuts and interest rate reductions. The PBOC has already conducted 11 consecutive months of enlarged Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rollovers, with a single operation reaching RMB 900 billion, significantly boosting medium- to long-term liquidity—helping stabilize financial system liquidity and market expectations.
On the fiscal side, the Ministry of Finance affirmed that overall fiscal spending in 2026 will be “increased, not reduced,” aligning with the NDRC’s plan to formulate a 2026–2030 strategic implementation scheme for expanding domestic demand—together forming a cohesive policy thrust centered on “stabilizing growth and boosting domestic consumption.” Senior leadership has held a series of intensive consultation meetings to gather input on the Government Work Report and the “Fifteenth Five-Year Plan”, signaling that medium- to long-term industrial and structural reform directions will become clearer. On the regulatory front, the Supreme People’s Procuratorate and the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) are deepening capital market legal reforms and intensifying crackdowns on financial fraud and market manipulation—enhancing pricing efficiency and encouraging longer-term institutional participation.
Sector-wise, Bldg-Hand Tools(G3548IG.CN) led gains with a 12.0% weekly increase, driven by rising demand for existing-home maintenance, infrastructure upkeep, and anticipated overseas restocking. Under the policy framework of “stabilizing existing housing stock and mitigating risks,” this post-cyclical segment has shown notable resilience. Chemicals-Agricultural(G1800IG.CN) rose 9.09%, supported by broad constituent coverage, active trading, national food security strategies, stabilizing agrochemical prices, and approaching spring planting season—all contributing to fundamental recovery. Its earnings stability makes it attractive to medium-term capital. Aerospace/Defense(G3722IG.CN) climbed 8.79% with significantly expanded turnover, continuing its medium-term narrative around military equipment modernization, defense informatization, and national security strategy, further catalyzed by emerging opportunities in commercial space.
In portfolio performance, the TOP33 portfolio gained an average of 3.99% this week, with 17 gainers and 16 decliners—showing internal divergence but significantly outperforming major broad-based indices. The top performer was Sichuan Gold(001337), surging 46.74%. It belongs to Industry Group 4—the strongest tier in the market. The stock boasts an RS Rating of 93, indicating substantial price outperformance; an EPS Rating of 99, reflecting exceptional earnings growth; and an O’Neil Score of 81, placing it in the high-quality range. Sustained elevated gold prices, combined with periodic spikes in safe-haven demand, support earnings expectations for gold mining firms. Coupled with its top-tier industry strength ranking, this reinforces the stock’s positive price trajectory.
Overall, the A-share market remains in an environment characterized by policy support, relatively ample liquidity, and abundant structural opportunities. While index-level divergence persists, the intermediate-term trend remains intact. Capital continues to flow toward stocks in top-ranked O’Neil industry groups that exhibit concurrent improvements in earnings growth and relative strength. Alignment between sector trends and fundamentals remains the core focus for market participants.
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Notice: Information contained herein is not and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell securities. It is for educational purposes only.
published on January 23, 2026