CSI 300 rose by 0.19%
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A-shares attempted a rebound but were suppressed by moving averages, with structural opportunities emerging
The A-share market is in a “rebound attempt” phase, but index performances are divergent and weekly trends remain weakly oscillating. The volume structure indicates that funds mainly engage in speculative trading, with trends yet to be confirmed. The SSE Index(000001) fell -0.70% this week, with the final day’s trading volume up +15.07% compared to the 50-day average volume, but the index remained below the 5/10/20-day moving averages and close to the 50-day moving average, showing that short-term rebounds are still suppressed by these averages. In contrast, the CSI 300(000300) saw a weekly increase of +0.19% and a volume increase of +17.25% on the final day, but it remains about -0.64% below the 50-day moving average, indicating limited recovery strength in key sectors. Growth sides relatively dominate; the Shenzhen Index(399001) increased by +0.76% and is above both the 50 and 200-day moving averages, while the ChiNext(399006) rose +2.51%, standing above the 5/10/20-day moving averages and maintaining an advantage of approximately +16.84% over the 200-day moving average, reflecting partial capital returning to high elasticity directions but more structurally.
In terms of Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index(HSI) declined -1.13% for the week, with the final day’s trading volume down by about -7.92% compared to the 50-day average volume and falling below both the 50 and 200-day moving averages. External risks have a more pronounced impact on risk appetite in the Hong Kong stock market. Overseas, the Nasdaq Composite(0NDQC) dropped -0.34% and the S & P 500 Index(0S&P5) fell -1.0% for the week, both indices below their short to medium-term moving averages, making global risky assets more sensitive to interest rate and inflation expectations.
On the US side, employment remains relatively stable. Initial jobless claims for the week ending March 7th were 213,000, lower than expected at 215,000 and slightly decreased from the previous value of 214,000, indicating that the labor market has not significantly weakened, which bolsters the Fed’s confidence in maintaining its current stance. Inflation data also supports this cautious approach: February CPI was 2.4% year-on-year, consistent with previous values and expectations, with a monthly increase of 0.3%, also meeting expectations but higher than the previous month’s 0.2%, showing that inflation is not declining smoothly and has some stickiness. More critical variables come from energy and geopolitical conflicts: EIA crude oil inventories increased by 3.824 million barrels, which should theoretically suppress oil prices, but the market is currently more focused on the risk of the Strait of Hormuz blockade and shipping disruptions causing “supply shocks”. When oil prices fluctuate sharply due to geopolitical factors, inflation expectations tend to rise, leading the interest rate market to adjust downward the number of interest rate cuts expected within a year, with the expectation of less than one cut for the whole year reflecting this re-pricing.
Regarding policy aspects in China, post the Two Sessions, policies enter the implementation period focusing on “maintaining growth bottom lines + cross-cycle adjustments + structural upgrades”. On one hand, through a combination of more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, stabilize total demand and credit environments; on the other hand, emphasize governance of “involutional” competition, improve supply quality, and shift competition from price wars towards technology and efficiency. Financial system-wise, the second round of capital injections into state-owned large banks has been finalized, helping strengthen the capital base, enhance credit support and risk absorption capabilities for the real economy; meanwhile, small and medium-sized banks are experiencing a “rate cut wave”, reflecting pressures on liability costs and asset yield rates coexisting, with subsequent focus on local financial resources and risk disposal mechanisms, likely adopting a policy orientation of “tiered and categorized risk mitigation” to avoid credit contraction.
Structural policies’ focal points are more concentrated in technology and new infrastructure: the central bank held a science and technology work conference, emphasizing the “proactive, steady, safe, and orderly” advancement of artificial intelligence in the financial sector; provincial-level actions like Jiangsu proposing brain-computer interface product registration targets, coupled with the BeiDou system’s orbital upgrade, embody long-term investment directions in “hard technology + safety foundations”. For foreign trade and industrial chains, the market expects first-quarter exports to maintain resilience, with customs promoting the facilitation of cross-border e-commerce returns, aiding in stabilizing new forms of foreign trade; simultaneously, the U.S. International Trade Commission overturning certain anti-dumping and countervailing duty rulings against China suggests external frictions are not unidirectionally escalating, though uncertainties remain high, necessitating ongoing efforts towards market diversification and compliance management by enterprises.
Industry-wise, despite indices remaining in a phase of oscillatory recovery, funds switch between offensive and defensive positions, with this week’s top three industry gains showcasing a combination feature of “new energy recovery—high dividend energy—medical defense”. Energy-Solar(G1320IG.CN)gained approximately 9.81% for the week, with active trading volumes, under the context of policy emphasis on nurturing new drivers and a phased rise in risk appetite, photovoltaic sector experienced valuation repair and transactional rebound; however, the industry only slightly increased by around +0.04% on the day, with significant short-term divergence, requiring closer observation to determine if the rebound can shift from sentiment repair to order and profit improvement. Energy-Coal(G1319IG.CN) gained about 6.37%, more reflecting defensive attributes of high dividends and resilient profits, but declined by approximately -1.3181% on the day, indicating a tendency towards realization after a rise, with future attention needed on coal prices, long-term agreement execution, and cost changes impacting profit margins. Medical-Supplies(G3840IG.CN) gained around 6.2% for the week and rose by about +2.51% on the day, possessing certain defensive qualities under expectations of elderly economy and rigid medical demands, with fewer components in the industry (18 stocks), concentrating elasticity, focusing on relative strength of leaders and continuity of institutional funding in transactions.
Portfolio and individual stocks-wise, the TOP33 averaged a decline of -3.42% this week, with 9 rising and 24 falling, structural opportunities persist but error tolerance is low. Ningxia Baofeng Energy Gp(600989) performed the best, with an O’Neil Score of 83, RS Rating of 95, EPS Rating of 97, Acc/Dis Rating of A+, and industry rating of 25. The company centers on modern coal chemical integration, covering products such as methanol, olefins, polyethylene/polypropylene, and other high-end coal-based new materials. During periods of significant oil price volatility, “coal replacing oil” cost hedging and spread management are more easily noticed by the market; simultaneously, it combines relative strength and earnings growth.
In a ‘rebound attempt’ environment, using volume-price coordination and trend continuation as premises for increasing positions, avoiding blindly chasing prices when indices are still suppressed by the 5/10/20-day moving averages. Externally, fluctuations in oil prices and geopolitical events, along with downward revisions in Fed rate cut expectations, may still bring emotional disturbances; however, against the backdrop of domestic liquidity remaining reasonably ample, steady growth policies, and continuous promotion of industrial upgrades, priority should be given to focusing on industry strength rankings 1-40 with verifiable fundamentals, fund flow ratings no less than C, and healthy technical patterns among leaders, waiting for clearer reversal signals from indices and sector expansion before gradually increasing risk exposure.
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published on March 13, 2026