CSI 300 Up 2.65%
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A-shares are still in a rebound-attempt phase. Major indices recovered this week, but the rebound remains limited in strength, and the market has not yet formed a clear reversal structure. The SSE Index(000001) rose 1.33% this week, while the CSI 300(000300) gained 2.65%, indicating that heavyweight sectors provided support. However, both indices remain below their 200-day moving averages by 4.97% and 1.04%, respectively, and both are still running below the 10-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages, suggesting that medium-term pressure is still present. Growth segments recovered more weakly: the Shenzhen Index(399001) rose only 0.49%, and ChiNext(399006) gained 1.52%. Although ChiNext moved back near the 200-day moving average, it is still clearly below the 50-day moving average, indicating that high-beta directions have not yet regained sustained upward momentum.
External-market disturbance to A-shares has not intensified, but strong support is also lacking. So far this week, the Nasdaq Composite(0NDQC) has fallen 1.50% and the S & P 500 Index(0S&P5) has fallen 0.66%, both still below their 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages. This reflects a cautious stance in U.S. technology stocks ahead of earnings season. The Hang Seng Index(HSI) rose 1.63%, showing relatively stable short-term performance. Trading turnover in both U.S. and Hong Kong markets has generally been weak, indicating that global risk assets have not entered a synchronized recovery. For A-shares, this represents easing marginal external disturbance rather than externally driven resonance.
From the overseas perspective, the U.S. economy still shows a mix of strong employment, unresolved inflation risk, and rising trade disturbance. Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 18 fell to 187,000, significantly below expectations, indicating that the labor market remains tight and giving the Federal Reserve little short-term reason to pivot rapidly toward easing. At the same time, EIA crude inventories unexpectedly increased by 2.01 million barrels that week, suggesting some short-term easing in supply-demand tightness. However, U.S. tariff increases on multiple countries, rising trade friction, and growing U.S. debt pressure may still push up imported inflation and market volatility. The European Central Bank kept its deposit rate unchanged at 2.25%, indicating that major economies still prefer a “wait-and-adjust” approach amid slowing growth. Overall, global monetary policy remains cautious.
Domestically, policy is placing greater emphasis on stabilizing markets, expanding domestic demand, and fostering new growth drivers. The CSRC has repeatedly stated that it will use comprehensive policy measures to maintain stable market operations, enhance capital-market resilience, and improve the convenience of foreign participation. This reflects a stronger policy focus on stabilizing expectations and preventing financial risk. Recent measures, including the market-stabilization policy package and Shanghai’s “20 Measures” for direct financing, indicate that policy is improving the capital market’s capacity to serve the real economy by guiding medium- to long-term capital into equities, supporting sci-tech financing, and strengthening investor protection.
At the macro level, room for monetary easing in Q3 is widely expected, but the likely stance remains “moderate easing plus targeted support,” with focus on upgrading service-sector capacity and quality, advancing “six-network” development, and supporting key industrial investment rather than broad-based stimulus. China’s Ministry of Commerce said that China and the U.S. are soliciting opinions on tariff-reduction arrangements and will push implementation as soon as possible, which should help ease trade pressure and stabilize business expectations. However, the implementation of new U.S. tariffs also means the external environment remains complex, and continued policy support is still needed to stabilize foreign trade and industrial chains.
In industrial policy, the core themes are becoming clearer. Service consumption and the sports industry are expanding, with the rollout of the National Fitness Plan and sports-powerhouse planning, showing that domestic-demand expansion is shifting from traditional goods consumption toward health, sports/culture, and service-oriented scenarios. Technological innovation is being further strengthened, with momentum in space computing power, near-packaged optics, and the AI earnings season, indicating that computing power, optical communications, and commercial aerospace are becoming key focuses for policy and capital. The SASAC seminar for heads of central SOEs also suggests that SOEs will continue to play an enhanced role in stabilizing growth and reinforcing industrial chains.
Sector performance shows a clear shift in capital style compared with earlier weeks. Leadership has moved from defensive consumer sectors toward more elastic, industry-logic-driven areas such as energy equipment, upstream oil and gas extraction, and semiconductor design, indicating improving risk appetite during the rebound-attempt phase. Oil&Gas-Machinery/Equip(G3533IG.CN) rose 10.28% this week, ranking first among industry gainers. In the current rebound-attempt environment, this strength suggests that capital is rotating back into oilfield-service equipment that could benefit from rising energy capex and geopolitical disturbance expectations. Oil and gas equipment typically combines cyclical elasticity with order-delivery visibility, making it more attractive to pro-cyclical capital when global energy-supply uncertainty persists. Oil&Gas-Intl Expl&Prod(G1315IG.CN) rose 9.18%, reflecting still-strong expectations for oil and gas price floors and upstream earnings resilience. Given recent tariff developments, geopolitical dynamics, and energy supply-demand changes, international exploration and production retains both resource and defensive characteristics and remains an important allocation direction before a full market strengthening. Elec-Semicondctor Fablss(G3676IG.CN)rose 7.75%, showing renewed capital inflows into growth technology. Fabless semiconductors are closely tied to AI terminals, edge computing, intelligent vision, and domestic substitution themes. With continued policy support for innovation and ongoing industrial upgrading, this space is more likely to serve as a high-beta direction during rebound phases. The sector’s outperformance also suggests that market style is gradually shifting from pure defense toward a parallel “energy upcycle plus technology recovery” structure.
The TOP33 basket fell 0.40% on average this week, with 13 stocks rising and 20 declining. Conditions have improved versus the previous sharp pullback, but internal divergence remains evident. The strongest performer was Sigmastar Technology(301536), which rose 43.49% for the week. Its O’Neil industry rating is 5, placing it in the strongest market tier. Its RS Rating is 98, indicating a very strong price trend. Its O’Neil Score of 78 and EPS Rating of 75 are also relatively strong, showing competitiveness in both growth momentum and price performance. The company focuses on video-surveillance chips and has solid technical accumulation in AI processors, image and video IP, and advanced-process SoC design. Under continued evolution of the AI and smart-terminal supply chain, it is drawing high attention. Its Acc/Dis Rating is A-, indicating improved fund-flow conditions, though sustainability still needs to be confirmed through subsequent volume and sector linkage.
From a market-structure perspective, A-shares remain in a rebound-attempt phase, and no sufficiently strong signal has yet emerged to confirm a trend reversal. Indices have generally rebounded, but volume is still insufficient and moving-average pressure remains. Leadership is also concentrated in relatively defensive sectors, indicating that investor sentiment is still cautious. The key follow-up focus should be whether the SSE Index and CSI 300 can further reclaim their 20-day moving averages, whether turnover can expand effectively during the rebound, and whether growth technology can regain capital recognition and form a new market main line. In positioning, it remains preferable to focus first on stocks in top-ranked industries with strong RS characteristics and improving capital inflows, while waiting for clearer trend confirmation from the market.
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published on July 24, 2026