CSI 300 Falls 0.54%
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The A-share market maintained a “stalled rally,” with divergent index performance and a failure to effectively expand trading volume, reflecting that capital is becoming cautious in high-level areas. The SSE Index(000001) edged up 0.41% this week but remains below its 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages, approximately -1.39% away from the 50-day MA and only 0.90% above the 200-day MA. This indicates that while the index still has resilience supported by heavyweight stocks, the momentum for trend repair is limited. The trading volume on the last day was 8.03% lower than the 50-day average volume. The CSI 300(000300) fell 0.54% for the week, also trading below its short- and medium-term moving averages, but maintains a 3.47% advantage over its 200-day MA, showing that large-cap blue chips are relatively resilient to declines. However, the index closed the week in the red despite the last day’s volume surging 7.04% above the 50-day average, indicating that capital divergence persists.
Growth-style stocks are under more evident pressure. The Shenzhen Index(399001) fell 1.17% for the week, breaking below its 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages. The ChiNext(399006) dropped 4.16% for the week, about -4.43% and -5.32% away from its 5-day and 10-day moving averages, respectively, signifying a significant deepening of the short-term correction. Although the ChiNext remains above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, growth stocks are facing more pronounced profit-taking at high levels. Overseas markets have slightly stabilized, with the Nasdaq Composite(0NDQC) up 2.12% for the week and the S & P 500 Index(0S&P5) up 1.76%. The rebound in US stocks provides some support for risk appetite, but A-shares did not strengthen in tandem, indicating that domestic capital is more focused on its own valuation digestion and structural shifts. The Hang Seng Index(HSI) rose 2.99% for the week, reclaiming its 5-day and 10-day moving averages, but remains significantly below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, suggesting the recovery is more of a technical rebound from oversold conditions.
Overseas, the latest US data indicates that the trend of economic cooling is continuing. June ADP employment increased by only 98,000, below the expected 118,000 and the previous 122,000. June non-farm payrolls increased by only 57,000, far below the expected 110,000 and significantly weaker than the previous 129,000. This shows that corporate hiring is becoming cautious and the momentum of economic expansion is marginally slowing. However, the US labor market has not experienced a significant slowdown. The June unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, better than the expected and previous 4.3%. Initial jobless claims for the week were 215,000, also slightly below expectations. This means that although the job market is weakening, it still maintains a certain degree of resilience. For the Federal Reserve, this combination will ease short-term pressure for interest rate hikes but is insufficient to support a rapid rate cut. Monetary policy will likely continue to focus on an extended observation period.
Manufacturing and energy data further illustrate that the US is facing a “weak growth + inflation disturbance” situation. The June ISM Manufacturing PMI was 53.3, still in expansion territory but lower than expected and the previous value, showing that manufacturing sentiment has slowed somewhat. Meanwhile, EIA crude oil inventories continued to fall by 3.775 million barrels. Although the decline was less than expected, the continuous drawdown in inventories, coupled with the repeated US-Iran situation, means that the risks of oil prices and imported inflation have not completely dissipated, and the Fed’s policy space will remain constrained.
Domestically, the current policy focus is more prominently on pursuing stable growth and industrial upgrading in parallel. The June manufacturing PMI returned to expansion territory, indicating that previous stable-growth policies are taking effect, with improvements on both the production and demand sides. This means there is no need for policy to shift to comprehensive strong stimulus in the next stage; instead, it will maintain its resolve to promote structural optimization on the basis of economic recovery.
From a policy deployment perspective, technology and industrial policies have significantly intensified. The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee meeting released signals for stabilizing the economy and promoting transformation. Eight departments issued implementation opinions on the high-quality development of the industrial internet, and areas such as artificial intelligence, computing power, and the industrial internet have received further support. The State Council proposed advancing AI education across all academic stages, indicating that policy is not only focusing on current investment and industrial applications but is also laying out in advance for future technological competitiveness and talent systems. At the same time, new areas such as the platform economy and the low-altitude economy are also accelerating their shift towards high-quality development. Officials emphasized that the platform economy should shift from “competing on price” to “competing on quality and innovation,” meaning policy guidance places greater emphasis on technological upgrades and sustainable competition. The implementation of the new Civil Aviation Law will help the low-altitude economy develop more steadily on the basis of improved rules, further cultivating new growth points.
The industries with the largest gains this week were Medical-Generic Drugs(G8064IG.CN), up 16.19% for the week, mainly affected by the weak US June ADP and non-farm payroll data. Concerns about further Fed tightening have eased, and coupled with the domestic manufacturing PMI returning to expansion territory, this has driven capital back into the pharmaceutical sector, which has both defensive and resilient earnings characteristics. Medical-Biomed/Biotech(G8063IG.CN) rose 13.82% for the week. In addition to benefiting from improved interest rate expectations, policy catalysts such as technological dominance, AI, and the industrial internet have also increased market attention on innovative drugs and the integration of technology and medicine. Bldg-Hand Tools(G3548IG.CN) rose 10.99% for the week, mainly benefiting from the recovery of domestic production and demand and the fact that overseas manufacturing remains in an expansion zone, which strengthened expectations for export chain restocking and pro-cyclical recovery. Overall, the market’s main themes are concentrated in three directions: “pharmaceutical defense + tech growth + manufacturing recovery.”
In terms of individual stock performance, the Top 33 had an average gain/loss of -3.32% this week, with only 8 stocks rising and 25 falling, showing that the market’s profit-making effect is further contracting, and strong opportunities are mainly concentrated in a few high-prosperity directions. The best-performing stock was Remegen(688331), with a weekly gain of 31.34%. Its O’Neil Score is 77, RS Rating is 85, and EPS Rating is 81, indicating good fundamentals and relative strength performance. However, its industry rating is 76, and short-term performance is more driven by events and capital focus. The Acc/Dis Rating is A+, showing that the chip distribution has improved, but it is still necessary to observe the sustained absorption after the volume surge.
In a “stalled rally” environment, it is more appropriate to remain prudent in operations, focusing on whether the index can reclaim its 20-day and 50-day moving averages and whether new volume-leading leaders will emerge within the tech theme. If trading volume continues to decline and the correction of overvalued stocks (known as “correction”) intensifies, defensive demand may rise again. If policy catalysts and earnings expectations resonate, AI hardware, semiconductor equipment, and data infrastructure are still expected to be repeatedly active.
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published on July 3, 2026