CSI 300 Rises 0.08%
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The A-share market maintains its upward trend, with the overall environment currently in a phase described as “favorable conditions—considering investment opportunities.” At the index level, performance remains range-bound and divergent. Trading volumes have stayed within a relatively active range, indicating that investor risk appetite has not significantly declined—though positioning at elevated levels shows a clear preference for structural allocation.
The SSE Index(000001) declined by 0.44% this week, with its final-day volume surging 32.03% above its 50-day average. The CSI 300(000300) edged up modestly by 0.08%, with increased volume primarily reflecting institutional rebalancing within existing structures. The Shenzhen Index(399001) pulled back 1.62% for the week but remains 18.31% above its 200-day moving average. Meanwhile, the ChiNext(399006) dipped slightly by 0.09%, yet still trades 25.09% above its 200-day moving average—indicating that its medium-term uptrend remains intact, with recent volatility largely driven by profit-taking after prior gains.
In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index(HSI) rose 2.38% this week, supported by recovering trading volumes and sustained positioning above key moving averages. Overseas investors continue to demonstrate resilient appetite for Chinese assets. Globally, the Nasdaq Composite(0NDQC) and S & P 500 Index(0S&P5) extended their choppy uptrends, gaining 0.78% and 0.77% respectively to date—both comfortably trading above their 200-day moving averages, providing a supportive external backdrop for global risk assets.
On the macro front, recent U.S. economic data show “persistent resilience but marginal softening.” Initial jobless claims for the week ending January 24 came in at 209,000—slightly above consensus but still near historic lows—suggesting the labor market remains fundamentally sound. This has kept the Federal Reserve cautious in its policy stance. As expected, the latest FOMC meeting held the upper bound of the federal funds rate steady at 3.75%. Institutions such as China International Capital Corporation (CICC) project two rate cuts in 2026, though the first may be delayed until Q2. This implies overseas liquidity conditions are unlikely to ease sharply in the near term, though the peak tightening phase may have passed.
On the energy side, U.S. EIA data showed an unexpected drawdown of 2.295 million barrels in crude inventories—significantly better than expectations of a large build. Combined with renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, this has provided short-term support for oil prices, though it also adds uncertainty to the inflation outlook.
Geopolitical and global financial uncertainties remain key variables. Domestically, U.S. political uncertainty is rising, with intensified speculation over the next Fed Chair, leading to divergent market views on policy continuity. Externally, frequent U.S. signals on tariffs and sanctions—including threatening rhetoric toward energy suppliers—have amplified volatility in global trade and energy markets. Meanwhile, potential coordinated U.S.-Japan FX intervention, periodic yen strength, and growing “de-dollarization” trades are pressuring the U.S. dollar index, prompting global capital to reassess asset allocation. Against this backdrop, some overseas investors are increasing allocations to Chinese assets, as China’s relative advantages in valuation, policy clarity, and industrial resilience become more evident.
Domestically, policy continues to tilt toward “stabilizing growth, expanding domestic demand, and adjusting structure.” The General Office of the State Council recently issued a work plan to accelerate the cultivation of new service consumption drivers—marking the first systematic deployment in areas like transportation, home services, and auto aftermarket—and explicitly called for financial institutions to boost credit support for relevant businesses. This signals a strategic shift in domestic demand expansion from traditional goods consumption toward service consumption and stock-based improvements, enhancing the sustainability of economic recovery. The Ministry of Commerce also pledged to vigorously develop service trade and introduce measures to boost inbound consumption, aligning with broader service-sector policies. On monetary policy, multiple institutions expect room for further RRR cuts and rate reductions this year, with potential policy rate cuts likely centered around Q2—providing a floor for market liquidity expectations.
At the regional level, GDP growth across the Yangtze River Delta (Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui) all outpaced the national average last year, with emerging industries and high-end manufacturing showing standout performance—highlighting the region’s leadership in industrial upgrading and technological innovation. This resonates with the national emphasis on “new quality productive forces,” creating fertile ground for related sectors and high-quality enterprises. Additionally, the newly revised Implementation Regulations of the Drug Administration Law have been officially released, helping standardize the pharmaceutical industry, strengthen R&D incentives, and provide institutional support for its long-term healthy development.
Sector-wise, Oil&Gas-Intl Expl&Prod(G1315IG.CN) led weekly gains with a 12.18% increase. Against the backdrop of shifting global energy inventories, escalating Middle East geopolitical risks, and a recovering oil & gas capex cycle, the earnings elasticity of international exploration and production segments is being re-evaluated by capital. Telecom-Fiber Optics(G3552IG.CN) surged 11.88%. With sustained AI compute demand, accelerated data center construction, and ongoing telecom network upgrades, fiber optic cables—as foundational infrastructure—are seeing enhanced order visibility and earnings certainty. Combined with domestic new infrastructure investment and recovering overseas demand, the sector is strengthening both fundamentally and technically. Bldg-Maintenance & Svc(G7340IG.CN) rose 10.61%, continuing the relative strength of post-property-cycle segments. Unlike traditional property development, this subsector benefits more from existing-home maintenance, urban renewal, and upgrades in property and community services—making it less sensitive to housing sales volatility under the current policy focus on “stabilizing existing stock and mitigating risks.”
The TOP33 portfolio gained 0.57% on average this week, with 14 stocks rising and 19 declining—showing clear internal divergence but outperforming several broad benchmarks overall. The top performer was Sichuan Gold(001337), which soared 31.75%. Its industry rating stands at 1, placing it among the market’s strongest sectors. The stock holds an RS Rating of 99, significantly outperforming the market; an EPS Rating of 99, reflecting exceptional earnings growth quality; and an O’Neil Score of 73, indicating solid fundamentals and technicals. In an environment of high precious metal price volatility and periodically elevated safe-haven demand, gold mining companies with strong fundamentals and top-tier industry strength are more likely to attract capital flows.
Overall, the market is in a consolidation phase within a broader uptrend, with index-level upside increasingly driven by structural rotation. Capital allocation logic continues to center on sectors and stocks exhibiting simultaneous improvement in O’Neil industry strength, earnings growth quality, and relative price strength. Stocks supported by policy tailwinds, high demand visibility, and robust technical patterns are most likely to sustain outperformance in the coming period.
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published on January 30, 2026