U.S. Inflation Is Still Sticky or Affect the Subsequent Rate Cuts to Slow Down

CSI300 dropped 3.3%

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The CSI 300 fell 3.3% this week on volume above the average and higher than the week before the National Day Holiday. The market condition was Confirmed Uptrend. Turnover in Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges has been hitting record high this week, with turnover exceeding RMB three trillion for the first time on October 8, reaching RMB3.4 trillion. The index fell back after increasing higher this week as the briefing from the National Development and Reform Commission on Tuesday disappointed the market by not providing further details to stimulate the economy. Resistance is at the Oct. 8 high of 4,450 and support is at the May 20 high of 3,703. China’s official manufacturing PMI came in at 49.8 in September, higher than the previous value, but still below the threshold line. Caixin Manufacturing PMI was 49.3, back below the threshold line, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous value of 50.4, a new low since August 2023.On October 10, the Securities, Funds, and Insurance Companies Swap Facility (SFISF) was officially created to support eligible securities, funds, and insurance companies to swap high-grade liquid assets such as treasury bills and central bank bills from the People’s Bank of China, using assets such as bonds, stock ETFs, and CSI300 constituent stocks as collateral. The scale of the first phase of operation is RMB500 billion. U.S. nonfarm payrolls surged by 254,000 in September, the largest increase since March 2024, not only higher than the revised 159,000 in August, and far exceeded expectations of 144,000 people. In addition, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, a new low since June 2024. U.S. CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year in September, lower than the previous value. Core CPI rose 0.3% m/m and 3.3% y/y, beating expectations. Strong employment data and the CPI exceeded expectations to show that U.S. inflation is still sticky or affect the subsequent rate cuts to slow down. The conflict in the Middle East continues to escalate as Iran launches some 200 missiles into Israel. Follow up to see the press conference to be held by the State Council Information Office on Saturday, when Minister of Finance Foan Lan will be invited to introduce the progress of “increasing the counter-cyclical adjustment of fiscal policy and promoting high-quality economic development”. Investors are advised to continue to focus on technically and fundamentally sound stocks and be wary of profit-taking after the recent rally.

Leading: Financial (-0.6%), Technology (-1.5%), Communication Service (-4.0%); Lagging: Real Estate (-8.3%), Consumer Staple (-7.5%), Basic Material (-6.3%).

【A33】portfolio fell 1.5% with 13 stock up and 20 down. An enterprise specializing in education and information security Doushen Beijing Education & Tech (300010) led the gains. The stock rose 11.0% this week. RS and AD ratings were 99 and A+. DG rating was 59.

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published on October 11, 2024

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