Trump May Bring More Aggressive Tariff Policies

CSI300 gained 1.9%

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The CSI 300 rose 1.9% this week on volume below the average and lower than the last week. The market condition was Rally Attempt. The index continued to rally this week, regaining the 21DMA and 200DMA in quick succession. Resistance was at 50DMA and 100DMA. 2Q24 GDP rose 4.7% y/y, below both prior and expectations. Value added of above-scale industry in June rose 5.3% y/y, below the previous but above expectations. Fixed asset investment rose 3.9% y/y in January-June, below the previous but above expectations. Total retail sales of consumer goods rose 2.0% y/y in June, well below expectations of 4.0% and the prior value of 3.7%.Consumer data in June once again showed weakness. The twentieth session of the Third Plenary Session focused on deepening economic transformation. U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump was boosted in morale after he successfully escaped assassination at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania on 13th June. The probability of Trump winning the presidential election can be greatly improved. Export concept stocks are under pressure due to fears of more aggressive tariff policies after he takes office. Market sectors are rotating rapidly. With earnings season underway, investors are advised to focus on stocks with good performance and technicals. Northbound outflow via the HK-China Stock Connect was RMB19.3B.

Leading: Consumer Staple (+3.1%), Communication Service (+2.7%), Financial (+1.8%); Lagging: Basic Material (-2.0%), Consumer Cyclical (-1.9%), Energy (-0.7%).

【A33】portfolio fell 2.8% with 11 stock up and 22 down . Integration of R & D and production as one of the large-scale manufacturing-oriented science and technology enterprises Ningbo Deye Tech (605117) led the gains. The stock rose 13.0% this week. RS and AD ratings were 99 and A+. DG rating was 62.

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published on July 19, 2024

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