Short-Term Market Recovery; Attention on Whether the Rebound Can Be Sustained

CSI 300 Increased by 1.98%

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This week, the A-share market attempted a rebound, and investors need to closely monitor whether an effective trend reversal can be formed. The SSE Index(000001) closed at 3303.67 points, with a weekly increase of 1.63%, but it is still 10.09% away from its one-year high. The CSI 300(000300) performed slightly better with a weekly gain of 1.98%, above the 50-day moving average, indicating a slight improvement in market sentiment. In Shenzhen, the Shenzhen Index(399001) and ChiNext(399006) rose by 4.13% and 5.36% respectively, with ChiNext’s performance being particularly notable, supported by market preference for growth stocks. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index(HSI) rose by 4.49% this week, with significantly improved liquidity, and the last day’s trading volume was much higher than the 50-day moving average by 63.54%. Technically, the HSI has broken through the short-term moving average suppression, and if trading volume continues to support, the rebound momentum may continue.

The gains in the U.S. stock market were relatively moderate, with the Nasdaq Composite(0NDQC) currently up 0.84%, but still 2.04% away from its one-year high. The S & P 500 Index(0S&P5) increased by 0.71%, maintaining a steady short-term trend. Federal Reserve officials have recently warned about the potential impact of Trump’s tariff policy, and the market remains cautious about future economic uncertainties.

In terms of macroeconomic data, as of January 29, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.5%, in line with market expectations, indicating that the Fed continues to adhere to a tight monetary policy to combat inflation. In the Eurozone, as of January 30, the European Central Bank’s deposit facility rate was announced at 2.75%, down from the previous 3%, suggesting that the ECB may be gradually easing its monetary policy. This contrasts with the tightening trend seen in the United States. The January ISM Manufacturing PMI in the U.S. stood at 50.9, higher than the market expectation of 49.8, showing preliminary signs of manufacturing expansion. Meanwhile, ADP employment increased by 183,000, exceeding expectations of 150,000, indicating a robust job market. Regarding the crude oil market, EIA crude oil inventories increased by 8.664 million barrels, far exceeding expectations of 1.962 million barrels, which could put pressure on international oil prices. Additionally, initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose to 219,000, slightly higher than expected, indicating some volatility in the labor market. On the policy front, the Chinese government emphasized promoting medium- to long-term capital inflows into the market, which could positively affect market liquidity.

Industry performance-wise, the strongest industry this week was Computer Sftwr-Security(G3220IG.CN), with a weekly gain of 18.12%, followed by Comp Sftwr-Spec Enterprs(G2761IG.CN) with a weekly gain of 14.12%. The Consumer Svcs-Education(G8240IG.CN) sector also performed well, with a weekly gain of 13.48%. These figures indicate that technology-related industries remain attractive under the current market environment.

The average gain in the TOP33 list this week was 2.75%, with 18 stocks rising and 15 declining. The best-performing stock was Dongguan Yutong Optical Tech(300790), achieving an impressive weekly gain of 43.05%. The company belongs to the computer hardware/peripherals sector, with an O’Neil Score of 81, RS Rating of 96, EPS Rating of 76, and ranks 14th in its industry, indicating that it is situated in a relatively strong sector. Moreover, the company’s Acc/Dis Rating is 63, suggesting substantial capital inflows recently, which is a positive signal for future stock price movements.

Overall, while there has been a short-term recovery in the market, attention must still be paid to the uncertainties of the global macro environment and whether market volume can sustain the rebound. Investors should closely watch changes in market trends and position themselves based on industry and stock strength.

What do you think? Please email us any questions or comments.

Notice: Information contained herein is not and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell securities. It is for educational purposes only.

published on February 7, 2025

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