CSI 300 up 0.80%
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A-Shares maintain an “uptrend,” with indices continuing to rise slightly this week and volume showing marginal improvement. The trend has shifted from “high-level digestion” to “oscillating rise.” The SSE Index(000001)rose +0.79% this week, remaining above its 5/10/20/50/200-day moving averages. The final day’s trading volume was approximately +3.3% higher than the 50-day average, which is favorable for trend continuation. The CSI 300(000300) rose +0.8% for the week, sitting just -0.61% away from its 1-year high and above its 20/50/200-day moving averages. The final day’s volume was approximately +5.68% higher than the 50-day average, indicating improved price-volume coordination on the heavyweight side. Growth indices showed divergence: the Shenzhen Index(399001) rose +1.12% for the week, and the ChiNext(399006) rose +0.26%. However, ChiNext’s final day volume was approximately -5.22% lower than the 50-day average, suggesting a bias towards structural rotation in the high-level range.
Regarding Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index(HSI) fell -0.78% for the week, dropping below its 10/20/50/200-day moving averages, with short-term trends dominated by consolidation. US stocks are in a pattern of “high-level pullback + strong trend.” The Nasdaq Composite(0NDQC) fell -0.66% this week, with the index significantly above its 20/50/200-day moving averages. The S & P 500 Index(0S&P5) fell -0.41% this week, also near yearly highs and clearly above its 20/50/200-day moving averages.
From an overseas data perspective, two threads—energy and interest rates—are simultaneously reinforcing an environment of “high volatility and difficult policy pivots.” US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending April 24 fell sharply by 6.234 million barrels, far exceeding the expected draw of 231,000 barrels and reversing the previous build of 1.925 million barrels, indicating tight short-term supply/demand or intensified supply disruptions. Coupled with fluctuating US-Iran tensions, naval blockades, and rising risks in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices are more susceptible to geopolitical amplification and rising risk premiums. On the interest rate front, the Federal Reserve maintained the upper limit of interest rates at 3.75% on April 29. While holding steady consecutively, significant internal divergence suggests a continued “data-dependent, slow pivot” approach amidst coexisting inflation and growth uncertainties. The “raised threshold for rate cuts in 2026” cited by institutions hinges on rising energy prices potentially boosting inflation expectations, making it harder to create room for rate cuts.
Geopolitical and energy structural changes are also rewriting the global macro framework. The World Bank estimates that global energy prices could rise by 24% this year due to the Middle East war. If realized, this will transmit to inflation through fuel, shipping, chemical, and manufacturing costs, compressing households’ real purchasing power and bringing “cost-push inflation, demand squeeze” stagflationary pressures. The UAE’s exit from OPEC further increases supply coordination uncertainty: geopolitical conflicts and producer strategy changes may make oil prices more volatile and harder to stabilize using traditional inventory and production logic. For asset pricing, rising oil prices increase inflation tail risks; US Treasury yields and USD financial conditions may remain tight, making risk assets more sensitive to policy and geopolitical news.
The domestic policy main line is clearer: expanding domestic demand is the “primary task,” supported by precise and effective fiscal and monetary policies to stabilize growth and expectations. The Politburo meeting emphasized “making good use of macro policies” and “precise and effective” fiscal/monetary measures, corresponding to realistic constraints like rising external uncertainty, ongoing real estate recovery, and pressure on land transfer revenue. In terms of execution, approximately 1.16 trillion yuan of new special bonds were issued in Q1, with a fast pace expected to continue in Q2. This implies stabilizing growth relies more on infrastructure and public service gap-filling driven by special bonds, echoing the planning and construction of the “Six Networks”: network projects in transportation, energy, water conservancy, logistics, information, and urban infrastructure, which provide short-term support while improving medium-to-long-term factor flow efficiency and supply quality.
Regarding structural policies, “AI+” and New Quality Productive Forces continue to be emphasized. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology proposed the “AI + Software” special action, promoting intelligent programming R&D and application, and orderly arranging computing power and edge computing layouts, reflecting the supplementation of supply-side infrastructure and toolchain capabilities. Guangdong proposed strengthening emerging industries like intelligent robotics and aerospace, reflecting local implementation of national strategies and industrial cluster promotion. Supporting this, the issue of employment structure transformation is heating up, with future measures likely including vocational training, flexible employment security, and new occupational standards to buffer AI’s impact on job structures.
Opening up and energy security are also advancing simultaneously. On one hand, implementing zero tariffs for 53 African diplomatic partners helps stabilize foreign trade partners, expand two-way market space, and enhance external circulation resilience. On the other hand, the discovery of 13 billion-ton oil fields in the last 5 years boosts medium-to-long-term supply confidence, helping hedge against external oil and gas shocks.
At the industry level, this week’s leading direction switched from the defensive and hedge combination of “Hospital Prosperity – Property Services – Oil & Gas Equipment” back to a more offensive structure dominated by “Semiconductor Chain + Small Industry Event Drivers.” Elec-Semicondctor Fablss(G3676IG.CN) rose approximately 10.76% for the week, more likely to attract trend funds driven by industrial chain localization, AI-related demand spillover, and design-side product iteration expectations. Diversified Operations(G9900IG.CN) rose approximately 9.45% for the week, with a smaller trading scale (approx. 2.897 billion) and 9 industry components. This reflects more elasticity driven by individual stocks and theme rotation; sustainability usually depends on the realization of core target catalysts and fund support strength, placing more importance on the simultaneous expansion of patterns and trading volume. Elec-Semiconductor Equip(G3674IG.CN) rose approximately 9.11% for the week, with broader coverage (51 components), reflecting funds extending from the design end to capital expenditure and the “hard tech base” of domestic substitution.
Regarding individual stocks and portfolios, the Top 33 had an average gain of +1.69% this week, with 16 rising and 17 falling; structural opportunities remain, but divergence continues. The top performer was Guocheng Mining Co Ltd(000688), with a weekly gain of 17.24%, an O’Neil Score of 65, an RS Rating of 98, an EPS Rating of 34, an Acc/Dis Rating of A, and an Industry Rating of 33. Its Industry Rating is in a relatively strong range (more consistent with the strong industry range for priority attention), but the EPS Rating of 34 indicates profit growth is not outstanding. The stock’s strength relies more on commodity prices and expectations; subsequent tracking is needed regarding the impact of price, production/sales, and cost changes on profit realization.
In the “uptrend” stage, one can continue to look for right-side opportunities. However, against the backdrop of converging index gains and increasing individual stock divergence, position increases are better synchronized with volume breakouts and effective support after pullbacks in strong stocks, avoiding emotional chasing at highs. Operationally, prioritize leaders in Industry Strength Rank 1-40 with verifiable fundamentals, an Acc/Dis Rating of no lower than C, and healthy technical patterns.
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Notice: Information contained herein is not and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell securities. It is for educational purposes only.
published on April 30, 2026