CSI 300 down 0.3%
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The trend in the A-share market has shifted to “stalled momentum.” Overall indices were weak this week, presenting a pattern of “lackluster upward attacks and sustained sector rotation.” The SSE Index(000001) fell 0.54% for the week, dropping below its 5, 10, and 20-day moving averages (MA), though it remains above the 50 and 200-day MAs, meaning the medium-term trend is not yet broken. The volume on the last trading day was approximately 7.64% lower than the 50-day average volume, indicating that selling pressure did not significantly increase during the pullback; it looks more like a high-level consolidation on shrinking volume. The CSI 300(000300) fell 0.3% for the week. It remains above the 50/200-day MAs but is still suppressed by the 10/20-day MAs in the short term. The last-day volume was about 20.46% higher than the 50-day average; this surge in volume against a backdrop of a slight index decline reflects more of a position adjustment and capital rebalancing on the weighted end. The growth side remained relatively stable. The Shenzhen Index(399001) rose 0.23% for the week, with the last-day volume about 4.35% higher than the 50-day average. The ChiNext(399006) rose 0.24%, with volume close to the 50-day average (about +0.19%). However, the volume ratios for both compared to the previous week were approximately 0.89 and 0.91 respectively, indicating a cooling off from earlier highs and reflecting more cautious capital at these elevated levels.
In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index(HSI) fell 1.37% for the week, hovering near the 5-day line but remaining below the 10/20/50/200-day lines. The last-day volume was 4.47% higher than the 50-day average, suggesting ongoing divergence and turnover. U.S. stocks continued their strong high-level oscillation. The Nasdaq Composite(0NDQC) rose 0.26% and the S & P 500 Index(0S&P5) rose 0.5% for the week. Both remain above their 20/50/200-day MAs, but volume was weak (last-day volume relative to the 50-day average was approximately -4.5% and -7.94% respectively), indicating that external risk appetite has not significantly heated up.
Overseas, U.S. EIA crude oil inventories saw a sharp decline (-7.863 million barrels). Coupled with uncertainties regarding the Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-Iran negotiations, this has heightened the risk of rising oil prices. Once oil prices rise, inflationary pressure often diffuses from the energy sector to core inflation expectations. Meanwhile, U.S. initial jobless claims stood at 209,000, remaining at a tight level. This suggests the labor market has not significantly weakened, providing conditions for the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance. Expectations from various institutions and surveys that “rate hikes are possible/rate cuts are difficult within the year” are rising, and meeting minutes were also hawkish. This implies global liquidity may remain tight, and rising U.S. Treasury yields are putting pressure on the valuation of global risk assets.
Regarding domestic data, China’s total social electricity consumption growth rate rose to 6% year-on-year in April, a significant strengthening from the previous 3.5%. This often corresponds to a synchronized recovery in industrial production, service sector prosperity, and residential energy use. The implication for domestic policy is that growth momentum does not rely solely on “expectations”; the real economy has certain resilience. Therefore, macro-control is more likely to continue the approach of “balancing stable growth and risk prevention,” rather than rushing to use strong stimulus for short-term data. Instead, the focus will be on reducing institutional transaction costs, improving expectations, and activating market circulation.
The State Council executive meeting emphasized promoting the construction of a unified national market and “cracking down on involutionary competition.” These signals point to parallel supply-side governance and demand-side recovery: improving resource allocation efficiency by unifying rules, breaking down local barriers, and regulating competition order, allowing enterprises to shift their focus from price wars back to technology, brand, and service. Supporting this are stable employment policies (stabilizing posts, expanding capacity, and improving quality). The logic is that while external uncertainties remain, stabilizing resident income and employment expectations is a prerequisite for a more sustainable consumption recovery.
On the price front, although the domestic increase in refined oil prices was modest, against the backdrop of high international oil prices and recurring geopolitical risks, it will have a marginal transmission effect on logistics and travel costs. Domestic policy is more likely to focus on “ensuring supply and stabilizing prices + channeling costs.” This involves focusing on the efficiency of energy supply and transportation on one hand, and using structural policies to support affected industries on the other, avoiding cost shocks from evolving into broader inflation expectations. Regarding monetary policy, the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remaining unchanged for 12 consecutive months means “stabilizing interest rates” remains the main theme. There is a preference for using structural tools and fiscal exertion to provide a safety net, rather than significantly cutting rates.
Fiscal data for the first four months show a faster pace of revenue and expenditure, reflecting front-loaded counter-cyclical adjustments. This involves accelerating expenditure rhythm and optimizing expenditure structure to hedge against external demand fluctuations and adjustments in the real estate chain, while also providing financial guarantees for new quality productive forces such as technology and computing power networks. Institutional arrangements like the implementation regulations of the Mineral Resources Law strengthen resource security and standardized supply, providing a more stable factor environment for industrial upgrading.
At the industry level, this week’s leading structure shifted from the previous concentrated huddle in “pure tech” to a combination of “seasonal demand in the real estate chain + semiconductor manufacturing.” Bldg-A/C & Heating Prds(G3585IG.CN) rose about 9.63% for the week, reflecting the superposition of seasonal changes, trade-in programs, and expectations for a post-real estate cycle recovery. In the “stalled momentum” phase, such consumer durable directions often possess both prosperity and cash flow attributes, but sustainability still depends on the verification of terminal sales and channel destocking. Elec-Semiconductor Equip(G3674IG.CN) rose about 8.42%, reflecting capital continuing to layout around capital expenditure and the “hard tech foundation” of domestic substitution. However, this sector is sensitive to order confirmation, delivery rhythm, and gross margin fluctuations, and internal differentiation will accelerate during index volatility. Elec-Semiconductor Mfg(G3677IG.CN) rose about 7.8%, belonging to a broad-coverage, high-volume universal repair, indicating capital spreading further from the equipment end to the manufacturing end.
Regarding individual stocks and portfolios, the Top 33 averaged a gain of +3.05% this week, with 18 rising and 15 falling; excess returns came more from structurally strong stocks. The leader was Guangdong Dtech Technology(301377), with a weekly gain of 25.41%. Its O’Neil Score is 74, RS Rating is 99, EPS Rating is 98, Acc/Dis Rating is A, and Industry Rating is 23. The combination of high RS and high EPS is more likely to attract concentrated capital in a volatile market. However, the Acc/Dis Rating value is neutral, so subsequent observation of pullback support and trend continuity after a high-volume breakout is needed.
In the “stalled momentum” phase, it is more appropriate to heighten vigilance: position advancement should rely more on the pullback support of leading stocks and high-volume breakouts at key levels, rather than chasing short-term rallies when the index weakens. Stock selection should still prioritize leaders within the top 1-40 industry strength rankings that have verifiable fundamentals, an Acc/Dis Rating no lower than C, and healthy technical patterns, while setting stricter stop-loss and position reduction discipline for high-level volatility.
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published on May 22, 2026