Hang Seng Index Falls 0.78%
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The Hang Seng Index(HSI) fell 0.78% this week, while the Hang Seng TECH Index(HSTECH) edged down 0.63%. The Hong Kong stock market faced pressure and volatility against a macro backdrop of a continuing US-Iran geopolitical stalemate and soaring global energy prices. Although trading volumes for the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng TECH Index on the last day expanded to +8.43% and +25.66% above their 50-day averages respectively—indicating active market participation—capital mainly engaged in speculative battles around policy-benefiting sectors, with the overall indices constrained by declining external risk appetite.
This week’s HK stock performance was deeply influenced by a complex mix of internal and external factors. On the external front, the Federal Reserve, at its April FOMC meeting, maintained the interest rate cap at 3.75% with a rare 8:4 dissent, marking the highest number of opposing votes since 1992. This revealed significant internal disagreement on the inflation outlook and the path for rate cuts. Following the meeting, the market completely abandoned bets on rate cuts in 2026 and even began pricing in the possibility of rate hikes in 2027, causing US Treasury yields to surge. The 2-year yield climbed to 3.93%, and the 10-year yield hit a one-month high. This directly strengthened the US dollar, putting pressure on non-USD currencies, including the Hong Kong dollar. Concurrently, US-Iran negotiations reached a stalemate. Coupled with the UAE’s announcement to exit OPEC and plans to increase production, the global crude oil supply landscape shifted. Brent crude futures surged 6% during the week, and WTI oil prices skyrocketed to $108/barrel, exacerbating global “stagflation” concerns.
On the internal front, China’s macro policies actively provided a counterbalance. The Central Political Bureau meeting on April 28 set the tone, emphasizing the “precise and effective implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy,” and deploying the construction of the “Six Networks” (water network, new-type power grid, computing power network, etc.), injecting a shot in the arm for the economy. Furthermore, Shenzhen significantly relaxed purchase restrictions in its core districts, directly benefiting mainland property stocks listed in Hong Kong and becoming a key structural highlight of the week.
Sector performance showed significant divergence. Benefiting from Shenzhen’s new property policies, mainland property stocks led the market rally. Simultaneously, the high-end manufacturing and automation sectors, aligning with the national strategy of “New Quality Productive Forces” and the “Six Networks,” performed strongly. The Machinery-Mtl Hdlg/Autmn(G3537IG.HK) industry, with a rank of 29 (within the preferred range), saw its leader, WEICHAI POWER(02338), gain 8.72% for the week, with a high RS Rating of 94. The pharmaceutical sector was also impressive; WUXI APPTEC(02359) in Medical-Biomed/Biotech(G8063IG.HK) surged 9.94%. Its top-tier EPS Rating of 98 demonstrates strong fundamental support. The financial sector also performed respectably. Within the Banks-Money Center(G6020IG.HK) industry (ranked 28), BQD(03866) rose 8.19%, boasting an EPS Rating of 96 and a highly attractive valuation.
The US stock market pulled back from highs this week, with all three major indices recording losses. The Dow Jones Indus Actual(0DJIA) fell 0.75%, the S & P 500 Index(0S&P5) dropped 0.41%, and the Nasdaq Composite(0NDQC) declined 0.66%.
The market swung wildly between strong tech giant earnings and the hawkish Fed decision. On one hand, Q1 earnings from “MAMAA” tech giants (Microsoft, Apple, Meta, Amazon, Alphabet) universally beat expectations. Alphabet and Qualcomm, in particular, surged in after-hours trading on strong results, confirming that AI commercialization investments are being efficiently converted into profits, providing solid fundamental support for tech stocks. On the other hand, the Fed’s extremely hawkish stance and soaring oil prices sparked market concerns about a prolonged high-interest-rate environment and rising corporate costs. This ambivalence led to poor market breadth, with capital highly concentrated in a few AI leaders while other sectors faced widespread pressure.
The A-share market demonstrated strong independence and policy-driven characteristics, with the CSI 300(000300) bucking the trend to rise 0.8% this week. Trading volume on the last day moderately expanded to +5.68% above the 50-day average, indicating incremental funds are entering the market in an orderly fashion.
Market hotspots were highly focused on areas where policy and industry trends resonated. The “Six Networks” construction plan proposed at the Politburo meeting, along with the major energy security breakthrough of 13 new billion-ton oil fields discovered domestically, jointly catalyzed strong performances in sectors like lithium batteries, photovoltaics, rare earths, and oilfield services equipment. These sectors not only represent the development direction of “New Quality Productive Forces” but also align with the national strategic goal of enhancing energy self-sufficiency and supply chain security, forming a clear investment theme.
This week, the Top 33 portfolio fell an average of 1.59% (13 gainers, 20 decliners), underperforming the Hang Seng Index (HSI). The top performer was WUXI APPTEC(02359), with a weekly gain of 9.94%. The Model Portfolio saw a larger pullback, falling an average of 3.68% (1 gainer, 5 decliners), with WUXI APPTEC (02359) again providing the main positive contribution. From a long-term perspective, since its inception, the HK33 portfolio has consistently strived to generate returns that outperform the benchmark for investors by rigorously selecting high-quality individual stocks with top industry rankings and strong fundamentals.
From a technical analysis perspective, the current price of the Hang Seng Index(HSI) has fallen below its 5-day (-0.4551%), 10-day (-1.07%), and 20-day (-0.32%) moving averages, and is also below its 50-day moving average (-0.2296%), indicating a weakening short-term technical pattern. The key support level has shifted down to the 25,500 point area. The Hang Seng TECH Index(HSTECH) is also under pressure, with its current price below its 5-day (-0.3843%) and 10-day (-1.49%) moving averages. The key support for the medium-term trend is at the 4,800 round number level; a breach could trigger further technical selling.
Southbound capital continued its inflow trend this week, with net purchases of approximately HK$18.671 billion for the week. This indicates that the confidence of mainland institutional investors in the Hong Kong stock market has not been shaken by short-term external disruptions. Instead, they are using the market adjustment window to actively position themselves in high-quality assets that benefit from mainland stability and growth policies and possess core competitiveness, demonstrating their strategic intent for long-term allocation.
Overall, global markets this week were generally under pressure from the multiple headwinds of the Fed’s hawkish stance, geopolitical risks, and soaring energy prices. Hong Kong stocks pulled back due to tightening external liquidity, but policy-benefiting sectors like mainland property stocks and high-end manufacturing showed resilience. Looking ahead, the market will closely monitor the evolution of the US-Iran situation, guidance from Fed officials’ speeches on the interest rate path, and the implementation details of major domestic policies like the “Six Networks.” Investors should remain flexible and, while managing risk, focus on high-quality targets with solid fundamentals, leading industry positions, and alignment with long-term national strategic directions. The market involves risks; investment requires caution.
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published on April 30, 2026