CSI 300 up 0.97%
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The A-share market maintained a “stalled upward momentum,” with indices showing structural divergence characterized by “large-cap recovery, a weaker Shanghai Composite, and renewed growth outperformance.” The SSE Index(000001) fell 1.08% for the week, dropping back below its 5/10/20-day moving averages (MAs), though it remains slightly above the 50/200-day MAs. The medium-term trend persists, but short-term pressure is increasing; the last trading day’s volume was approximately +16.12% higher than the 50-day average. The CSI 300(000300) rose 0.97% for the week, stabilizing above the 10/20-day MAs and remaining significantly higher than the 50/200-day MAs, with the last day’s volume about +39.29% above the 50-day average. The growth side showed stronger performance: the Shenzhen Index(399001) fell 0.14% for the week but remains above the 50/200-day MAs, with the last day’s volume about +15.41% above the 50-day average; the ChiNext(399006) rose 2.53% for the week, hitting a new yearly high and staying above the 10/20/50/200-day MAs.
In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index(HSI) fell 1.65% for the week, dropping below the 10/20/50/200-day MAs, though the last trading day’s volume was approximately +66.36% higher than the 50-day average. Overseas markets remained strong: the Nasdaq Composite(0NDQC) rose 2.18% for the week to hit a new yearly high, while the S & P 500 Index(0S&P5) rose 1.21%, also reaching a new yearly high.
Looking at US data, the policy environment remains constrained by “sticky inflation + stable employment + oil price volatility.” April’s core PCE rose 3.3% year-on-year, in line with expectations but higher than the previous 3.2%, indicating that the disinflation process is not proceeding smoothly. Initial jobless claims for the week ending May 23 came in at 215,000, slightly above expectations, showing signs of a cooling labor market, though not significantly. Against this backdrop, Fed officials have turned “hawkish” again, with the market debating whether the “nightmare of rate hikes” is drawing nearer. The essence is this: as long as core inflation struggles to step down, rate cuts will be delayed, and the possibility of reinforcing “higher for longer” interest rates cannot be ruled out if inflation resurges. On the energy front, EIA crude oil inventories continued to draw down (-3.327 million barrels). Although this missed expectations and the previous figure, coupled with the back-and-forth in US-Iran negotiations, military threats, and news of missile conflicts, the geopolitical premium on oil prices is hard to fully dissipate. A White House advisor stated that “ending the Iran war would create conditions for rate cuts,” indirectly indicating that energy and geopolitical situations have entered the Fed’s list of exogenous policy variables. Regarding asset allocation, institutional views lean towards “US stocks outperforming US Treasuries, with support for the US Dollar Index,” echoing how “inflation risks + term premiums” suppress bond performance. However, alarms regarding tech stock concentration nearing bubble territory serve as a reminder: if financial conditions tighten again due to inflation, volatility on the equity side will amplify.
Domestic policy places greater emphasis on “investment levers to underpin growth + equal stress on industrial upgrading and regulatory governance.” The “15th Five-Year Plan for Urban Renewal” incorporates quantifiable indicators for renovating old districts, shoring up public facilities, and enhancing urban safety and resilience, while establishing a diversified investment and financing system. The aim is to stabilize real estate-related chains in a more sustainable way: not by simply stimulating new development, but by using urban renewal to drive demand in infrastructure, building materials, equipment, and services, forming a new model of “quality improvement in existing stock.” Meanwhile, new policy-based financial tools are “poised for action,” meaning policies will increasingly leverage policy-based finance alongside project capital and special funds to unlock over 10 trillion yuan in follow-up investment for renewal and infrastructure. This will be coordinated with the structural orientation of “financial living water nourishing small and micro businesses” to enhance the stability of employment and income expectations.
On the industrial policy front, the “strictest ever” new regulations on steel capacity replacement have been relaunched. The core aim is to use stronger constraints to force supply-side clearance and M&A restructuring, reducing inefficient repetitive investments, potentially ushering the industry into a phase of “integration dividends.” regarding AI, two departments are laying out plans for AI metrology capacity building and promoting multi-department legislative arrangements, embodying the principle of “developing while establishing rules”: reducing uncertainty in industrial applications through frameworks for standards, metrology, data, and legal liability. In the pharmaceutical sector, the release of compliance guidelines for online prescription drug sales (real-name purchasing, strictly prohibiting AI from replacing prescription reviews) draws a red line between innovation and safety to prevent public risks caused by technology misuse.
Regarding external cooperation and market openness, the China-Brazil joint statement and the APEC Trade Ministers’ Meeting emphasized ensuring smooth trade channels, helping to hedge against supply chain disruptions amidst global policy shifts. The SZSE Global Investors Conference highlighted the “safety premium of Chinese assets and steady foreign capital inflows,” which mutually reinforces the narrative of “new export drivers, and profit improvements driven by the AI chain and energy.”
At the industry level, the leading structure has shifted from “post-real estate cycle + semiconductor manufacturing” to “Utility-Electric Power defense + Telecom-Fiber Optics infrastructure prosperity + Retail-Super/Mini Mkts niche recovery,” aligning better with capital preferences during A-shares’ “stalled upward momentum” phase. Utility-Electric Power(G4911IG.CN) rose approximately 13.53% for the week; its high dividend yield and stable cash flow attributes make it easier to attract incremental funds when risk appetite contracts, though after a rapid rise, attention is needed on volume sustainability and divergence among leaders. Telecom-Fiber Optics(G3552IG.CN) rose about 7.53% for the week, supported by expectations for computing power networks and communication infrastructure, but the intraday pullback suggests rising divergence, making it more suitable to wait for a reconfirmation of increased volume after a pullback. Retail-Super/Mini Mkts(G5411IG.CN) rose about 7.1% for the week, leaning towards consumption rotation elasticity, with sustainability relying more on earnings realization and volume-price coordination.
Regarding individual stocks and portfolios, the Top 33 averaged a gain of +3.18% this week, with 17 advancing and 16 declining. The top gainer was Nanjing Sunlord Electronics(300975), up 57.37% this week, with an O’Neil Score of 67, RS Rating of 98, EPS Rating of 86, Acc/Dis Rating of A+, and an Industry Rating of 9. When industry strength is high and capital flow data is favorable, strength is more likely to persist; however, overly rapid short-term gains also imply that pullback volatility may amplify, making it more suitable to use key moving averages and high-volume pullback support as tracking conditions.
Vigilance is advised during the “stalled upward momentum” phase: position increases are better executed in sync with high-volume recovery on the large-cap side and secondary high-volume breakouts in leading industries, rather than chasing single-day pulses when indices weaken. In stock selection, prioritize leaders within the top 1–40 industry strength rankings that have verifiable fundamentals, an Acc/Dis Rating no lower than C, and healthy technical patterns. Additionally, implement stricter stop-loss and phased profit-taking discipline for high-volatility stocks.
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Notice: Information contained herein is not and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell securities. It is for educational purposes only.
published on May 29, 2026