Hang Seng Index Rises 3.09%
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The Hang Seng Index(HSI) rose strongly by 3.09% this week, while the Hang Seng TECH Index(HSTECH) delivered an even more impressive performance with a weekly gain of 3.87%. The Hong Kong stock market staged a powerful rebound following the Qingming Festival holiday, tracking a significant recovery in global risk appetite, primarily driven by expectations of substantial progress in the US-Iran ceasefire negotiations. Although the trading volume of the Hang Seng Index on the last day shrank by 12.20% compared to the 50-day average, reflecting some capital choosing to wait on the sidelines at high levels, overall market sentiment has clearly warmed.
The trend of Hong Kong stocks is highly synchronized with the global macro environment. Early this week, US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 4 rose to 219,000, slightly higher than expected, indicating a slight cooling in the labor market. Meanwhile, the US Core PCE Price Index YoY for February came in at 3%, in line with expectations, suggesting that inflationary pressures have eased. More importantly, the US and Iran confirmed they will hold direct talks in Islamabad on April 11, causing the geopolitical risk premium to fall sharply, which became the core catalyst for the rise in global stock markets. Against this backdrop, although Federal Reserve officials maintained a hawkish stance, market expectations for interest rate cuts within the year have not completely faded. For the Chinese market, the domestic policy front continues to release positive signals. The State Council formally implemented the “Regulations on the Security of Industrial and Supply Chains,” providing legal protection for key industries, and added the Inner Mongolia Free Trade Zone to further expand opening up. These measures have effectively enhanced investor confidence in the resilience of China’s economy, providing solid internal support for Hong Kong stocks.
In terms of industry sectors, market hotspots have focused on high-prosperity tracks. Benefiting from the surge in AI computing power demand, the semiconductor and hardware sector led the gains. At the same time, the pharmaceutical sector was active. INT MEDICAL(01501) in Medical-Products(G2831IG.HK) rose 11.31% for the week; its EPS Rating is as high as 97, showing strong earnings growth momentum. The new energy industry chain also saw a comprehensive recovery. REPT BATTERO(00666) in Consumer Prod-Specialty(G1007IG.HK) surged 10.86%; its O’Neil Industry Rank is 36, placing it in a strong range. Biotech stocks were also sought after. CLOVER BIO-B(02197) in Medical-Biomed/Biotech(G8063IG.HK) rose 8.07% for the week, and its RS Rating reached a top-tier score of 99.
The US stock market continued its strength this week, with all three major indices hitting new highs of over one month. The Dow Jones Indus Actual(0DJIA) rose 3.61%, the S & P 500 Index(0S&P5) gained 3.68%, and the Nasdaq Composite(0NDQC) led the way with a gain of 4.31%.
The surge in market sentiment was almost entirely driven by the news of the upcoming direct US-Iran talks, leading to a sharp repair in risk appetite. The strong AI industry trend provided fundamental support for the market; Amazon surged 5.6% after its CEO confirmed its potential in the AI field, and memory chip stocks exploded collectively. However, divergence appeared within the market, with software stocks plummeting against the trend, reflecting a shift of capital from high-valuation application ends to more infrastructure ends. Although US economic data was mixed, the temporary easing of geopolitical risks dominated the market direction, pushing stock indices to close higher for consecutive days. Notably, the Federal Reserve’s March meeting minutes showed that officials are highly alert to the risk of “stagflation” (i.e., slowing economic growth coexisting with soaring inflation) triggered by the war, making the monetary policy path exceptionally complex. Although maintaining unchanged interest rates in the short term is the consensus, if geopolitical conflicts cause oil prices to remain above $100/barrel for the long term, it will force the Federal Reserve to make a more difficult choice between fighting inflation and supporting growth, constituting the main macro constraint on the future rise of US stocks.
The A-share market saw a retaliatory rebound after the Qingming holiday, with the CSI 300(000300) surging 4.41% for the week. Market trading was active; although volume on the last day shrank by 19.55% compared to the 50-day average, the overall average daily turnover remained at a high level.
On the first day after the holiday (April 7), boosted by expectations of a US-Iran ceasefire, the ChiNext index once soared nearly 6%, and technology stocks exploded across the board. In the following days, the market entered a phase of oscillation and consolidation, with faster style rotation. The biggest highlight of the week came from domestic macro data: March national PPI turned from a decline to a rise of 0.5% year-on-year, the first increase after 41 consecutive months of decline, signaling a significant easing of deflationary pressure in the industrial sector and an expected improvement in corporate profitability. On the policy front, the state increased efforts to rectify “involuted” competition. Three departments jointly issued new regulations on platform pricing behavior and implemented new rules for short-term trading supervision, aiming to build a healthier and more orderly market ecosystem. Against this backdrop, the hard technology sector became the absolute main line, with autonomous and controllable directions such as computing hardware, semiconductors, and lithography machines standing out.
This week, the Top 33 portfolio performed excellently, rising an average of 1.87% (27 up, 6 down), successfully capturing structural opportunities in the market rebound. The leading gainer was INT MEDICAL(01501), with a weekly gain of 11.31%. The Model Portfolio was even stronger, rising an average of 4.66%. Among them, CATL(03750) rose 8.61% for the week; its RS Rating is 87, fully benefiting from the overall recovery of the new energy sector. Since its inception, Top 33 has continuously demonstrated the ability to generate excess returns in volatile markets due to its strict stock selection discipline.
From a technical perspective, the current price of the Hang Seng Index(HSI) has risen above all short-term moving averages, standing 2.37% higher than the 10-day average price, and has successfully reclaimed the 200-day average price (+0.4734%), indicating a clear strengthening of the medium-term trend. The short-term key support level has moved up to near the 25,500 point level, with resistance located at 26,500 points. The technical pattern of the Hang Seng TECH Index(HSTECH) has improved synchronously. Although the current price is still lower than the 50-day average price (-5.7418%), it has rebounded to above the 10-day average price (+1.29%) and is far from the 1-year low (higher by 5.2079%), indicating that its downside risk has been significantly reduced and it has entered a bottoming-out and recovery phase.
Southbound capital showed clear divergence in attitude this week, with a total net outflow of HK$11.796 billion for the week. This outflow was mainly concentrated on April 8, when the market surged due to extremely optimistic sentiment, with net sales reaching as high as HK$21.6 billion on that day, showing an operating strategy of cashing out profits at highs by domestic institutional investors. However, during the market pullback on April 9, southbound capital quickly turned to a net purchase of HK$12.6 billion, focusing on replenishing core assets such as technology and pharmaceuticals, reflecting its mature investment logic of “high throw low absorb” and recognition of the long-term value of Hong Kong stocks.
Overall, global markets strengthened comprehensively this week under the positive stimulus of breakthrough progress in US-Iran ceasefire negotiations. Hong Kong stock indices both recorded significant gains, and the A-share CSI 300 led the world with the added boost of better-than-expected domestic PPI data. US stocks hit new highs driven by the AI industry trend. Looking ahead, the outcome of the US-Iran Islamabad talks on April 11 will be the key variable determining the short-term direction of the market. At the same time, the intensive disclosure of A-share first-quarter reports will open the performance verification period, and individual stock divergence may intensify. The market has risks; investment requires caution.
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published on April 10, 2026