Hang Seng Index Rises 0.03%
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The Hang Seng Index(HSI) rose slightly by 0.03% this week, while the Hang Seng TECH Index(HSTECH) edged up modestly by 0.29%. Hong Kong equities faced early-week pressure due to strong U.S. nonfarm payroll data dampening rate-cut expectations. However, the market stabilized and rebounded in the latter half of the week, supported by sustained southbound inflows and domestic policy tailwinds—showcasing notable resilience. On the final trading day, HSI volume surged +7.58% above its 50-day average, signaling a recovery in market participation.
This week’s performance was shaped by both external macro conditions and internal policy direction. In the U.S., January nonfarm payrolls added 130,000 jobs—far exceeding the expected 70,000—and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.3%, reinforcing signals of labor market strength. This pushed market expectations for the Fed’s first rate cut from June to July, driving U.S. Treasury yields higher and pressuring global growth stock valuations. In contrast, China has rolled out unprecedented policy support. On February 13, the PBOC conducted a CNY 1 trillion six-month outright reverse repo operation—the sixth consecutive month of increased rollovers—clearly signaling a “moderately accommodative” monetary stance. The State Council held a special study session on “AI+,” with Premier Li Qiang emphasizing “breakthroughs across the entire chain and deployment across all scenarios,” elevating AI to a national strategic priority. Additionally, stock exchanges in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing eased refinancing rules for “asset-light, high-R&D” firms, directly benefiting tech innovators. These measures effectively offset external liquidity tightening and bolstered market confidence.
Targeted economic policies for Hong Kong are coalescing into a powerful synergy, injecting unique momentum into the market. First, at the financial infrastructure level, the inaugural meeting of the China-UK Financial Working Group was held to deepen cooperation and promote the development of an offshore RMB hub in London—expanding international capital access to Hong Kong equities and reinforcing Hong Kong’s role as the world’s premier offshore RMB center. Second, the Ministry of Finance plans to issue RMB 14 billion in sovereign bonds in Hong Kong soon, providing high-quality, creditworthy assets to the offshore market and enhancing liquidity depth. Third, eleven government departments jointly launched digital upgrades to streamline entry procedures for overseas individuals, aiming to attract more international investors and talent to Hong Kong and stimulate demand-side vitality. Moreover, regulatory uncertainty around platform economies is receding; rumors of a VAT hike for the gaming sector were swiftly debunked, underscoring policymakers’ strong commitment to market stability. Together, these precise and pragmatic policy initiatives form a “moat” that shields the Hong Kong market from external turbulence.
Sector-wise, structural opportunities are emerging. The standout performer was Machinery-Mtl Hdlg/Autmn(G3537IG.CN), ranking 8th in industry strength. Sector leader WEICHAI POWER(02338) surged 14.28% this week, with an O’Neil Score of 75 and an RS Rating of 92, benefiting from its deep positioning in high-end manufacturing and new energy. Similarly, Mining-Gold/Silver/Gems(G1040IG.CN) ranked 9th, with ZIJIN MINING(02899) rising 6.39%, supported by an EPS Rating of 99 and an O’Neil Score of 87, solidifying its role as a pillar in the resources sector. In contrast, certain consumer and property-related segments underperformed, reflecting accelerating capital rotation toward policy-backed hard-tech and high-momentum cyclical sectors.
U.S. markets broadly corrected this week. The Dow Jones Indus Actual(0DJIA) fell 1.32%, the S & P 500 Index(0S&P5) declined 1.44%, and the Nasdaq Composite(0NDQC) was the weakest performer, plunging 1.88%.
The core market tension lies between robust macroeconomic data and deep-seated concerns over an AI investment bubble. On one hand, the stronger-than-expected nonfarm payroll report confirmed economic resilience; on the other, Cisco’s weak guidance and growing panic over AI’s potential to disrupt traditional business models (e.g., freight, wealth management) triggered a sell-off in mega-cap tech stocks—Apple dropped 5%, and Cisco plunged 12%. Although December retail sales came in flat (0% vs. expected 0.4%), suggesting weakening consumption momentum, the robust labor market kept Fed officials firmly hawkish. Additionally, the risk of a partial U.S. government shutdown added further uncertainty, intensifying investor risk aversion.
The A-share market showed relative stability this week. The CSI 300(000300) rose modestly by 0.36%, but final-day volume contracted by -19.11% compared to its 50-day average, indicating pre-holiday caution among investors.
Market leadership continues to revolve around the “new quality productive forces” theme, with AI application segments (e.g., video generation models) and computing hardware (CPO, storage) leading gains, while consumer sectors like film/media and baijiu continued to retreat. Policy remains the primary driver for A-shares. Beyond the PBOC’s trillion-yuan liquidity injection, January CPI rose only 0.2% YoY, and PPI deflation narrowed to -1.4% YoY—mild inflation leaves room for policy easing. More importantly, the State Council and various ministries have rolled out a wave of industrial policies—from the “AI+” national strategy and ten key tasks for low-altitude economy to the accelerated construction of a unified national electricity market—providing clear long-term roadmaps for related supply chains. This top-down policy empowerment is key to A-shares maintaining independent strength amid external headwinds.
This week, the Top 33 portfolio delivered strong performance, rising 1.99% on average (20 gainers, 13 decliners). WEICHAI POWER(02338) led with a weekly gain of 14.28%. The Model Portfolio also performed robustly, averaging a +2.49% return (10 gainers, 2 decliners), led by SANHUA(02050) at +8.83%. Since inception, HK33 has consistently outperformed the Hang Seng Index (HSI), reaffirming the effectiveness of a strategy focused on high industry strength and solid fundamentals.
Technically, the HSI remains above its 50-day moving average (+0.6391%) but has broken below the 5-, 10-, and 20-day moving averages, indicating short-term consolidation at elevated levels. Key support lies at the psychological 26,000-point level, with resistance at 27,000. The HSTECH, however, appears notably weaker—trading 4.5112% below its 50-day moving average. Failure to reclaim this level quickly could trigger further downside toward the 5,200-point support zone.
Southbound net inflows totaled approximately HKD 26.089 billion this week—slower than last week’s HKD 55.308 billion but still robust—highlighting mainland investors’ continued conviction in core Hong Kong assets. Flows primarily targeted platform economy leaders and high-momentum hard-tech stocks, providing solid bottom-up support.
In summary, global markets operated this week in a complex environment of “strong data, weak expectations.” U.S. equities pulled back amid AI bubble concerns, A-shares demonstrated resilience under strong policy support, and Hong Kong equities successfully defended key support levels thanks to their unique offshore status and steady southbound inflows. Looking ahead, as detailed implementation rules for China’s “new quality productive forces” policies roll out and the Fed’s policy path becomes clearer following upcoming CPI data, Hong Kong’s role as a bridge between domestic and international capital—and its valuation advantage and allocation appeal—could become even more pronounced.
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published on February 13, 2026