HSI Falls 0.7%
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The Hang Seng Index(HSI) pulled back 0.7% this week; the Hang Seng TECH Index(HSTECH) performed even weaker, with a weekly decline of 2.79%. The Hong Kong stock market faced downward pressure amid the deadlock in US-Iran ceasefire negotiations and rising geopolitical risks. Despite a slight 0.52% increase in trading volume for the Hang Seng TECH Index on the final day, the Hang Seng Index saw a volume contraction of 11.29%, reflecting cautious market sentiment and rising risk aversion.
The trend of Hong Kong stocks is closely linked to the global macro environment. US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18 rose to 214,000 (prior 208,000), indicating a slight loosening in the labor market. Meanwhile, US March retail sales month-on-month significantly beat expectations, reaching 1.7% (forecast 1.4%), indicating strong domestic demand, which reinforces expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for longer. More critically, EIA-reported crude oil inventories unexpectedly surged by 1.925 million barrels (forecast was a draw of 1.2 million barrels), coupled with the deadlock in US-Iran negotiations and renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a sharp rebound in oil prices, with WTI crude oil futures rising over 3% for the week, exacerbating market concerns about “stagflation” risks. For the Chinese market, domestic policy continues to release positive signals. The General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the “Comprehensive Evaluation and Assessment Measures for Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality,” incorporating the achievement of “dual carbon” goals into the assessment system for leading cadres, highlighting the determination of policy implementation and expected long-term benefits for the green energy and energy-saving technology industry chains. Additionally, China’s March total social electricity consumption grew 3.5% year-on-year, indirectly confirming the steady recovery of economic activity.
In terms of industry sectors, the market showed significant divergence. Benefiting from AI hardware demand and industry prosperity, the electronic components sector bucked the trend with a sharp rise. KB LAMINATES(01888) in Electronic-Parts(G3680IG.HK) surged 20.45% for the week, with a top-tier RS Rating of 98, and its industry ranking is a strong 11. KINGBOARD HLDG(00148), in the same industry, also rose sharply by 14.67%, with an O’Neil Score of 81. The machinery automation sector also performed brightly, with WEICHAI POWER(02338) in Machinery-Mtl Hdlg/Autmn(G3537IG.HK) rising 12.83%, with an RS Rating of 93, showing strong momentum.
The US stock market oscillated at high levels this week, with the three major indices closing slightly lower. The Dow Jones Indus Actual(0DJIA) fell 0.28%, the S & P 500 Index(0S&P5) dipped slightly by 0.25%, and the Nasdaq Composite(0NDQC) had the smallest decline at 0.12%.
The market is swinging between strong corporate earnings and deteriorating geopolitical situations. On one hand, chip giants like Intel and Texas Instruments delivered better-than-expected earnings due to a surge in AI server demand, driving the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index to a historic record of 17 consecutive days of gains. On the other hand, the deadlock in US-Iran negotiations led to renewed tensions in the Middle East, with Iran activating its capital’s air defense system, triggering market panic over energy supply disruptions and causing oil prices to surge. This uncertainty put pressure on high-valuation sectors like software stocks, with ServiceNow plummeting nearly 18% after hours due to a large order being affected by Middle East conflicts, dragging down the entire sector. Despite mixed US economic data, the certainty of the AI industry trend and geopolitical uncertainty jointly dominate the market’s short-term direction.
The A-share market showed strong resilience, with the CSI 300(000300) rising slightly by 0.86% this week. The market remained stable amid external disturbances, with trading volume on the final day shrinking 17.88% compared to the 50-day average, indicating strong wait-and-see sentiment.
Amid sector rotation, the “New Quality Productive Forces” main line remains clear. Under the policy catalyst of the State Council clarifying that the total scale of the service industry will reach 100 trillion yuan by 2030, and the “dual carbon” assessment being linked to official appointments, themes like computing hardware, commercial aerospace, and green energy have repeatedly been active. Although the ChiNext Index has been volatile, it has generally remained at high levels. At the macro level, Q1 foreign trade growth exceeded expectations, surpassing 11 trillion yuan for the first time, showing the resilience of China’s economy in external demand. The LPR has remained unchanged for 11 consecutive months, maintaining a stable monetary environment and providing good support for the market.
This week, the Top 33 portfolio performed steadily, with an average slight decline of 0.10% (16 advances, 17 declines), successfully controlling drawdowns during the market adjustment. The leading gainer was KB LAMINATES(01888), with a weekly gain as high as 20.45%. The Model Portfolio saw a slight pullback, with an average decline of 1.80% (3 advances, 3 declines), among which CQRC BANK(03618) rose against the trend by 2.71%, with its industry ranking at 28, in the preferred range, providing defensive support. Since its inception, the Top 33 portfolio has consistently demonstrated the ability to generate excess returns in volatile markets due to its strict stock selection discipline.
From a technical perspective, the current price of the Hang Seng Index(HSI) has fallen below its 5-day average (-0.7751%) and 10-day average (-0.44%), but remains above its 20-day average (+1.1%); the short-term uptrend has not been completely broken, with key support below located near the 25,500 point level. The technical pattern of the Hang Seng TECH Index(HSTECH) has weakened, with the current price not only below its 5-day average (-1.3991%) and 10-day average (-1.12%), but also far below its 50-day average (-2.3043%) and 200-day average (-11.8947%); the medium-term trend is facing a test, and attention should be paid to the support strength at the 4,800 point round number level.
Southbound capital was active this week, with a total net inflow of HK$16.777 billion for the week. This indicates that domestic institutional investors did not panic due to short-term geopolitical disturbances, but instead chose to buy the dip during the market pullback, focusing on allocating high-quality assets with core competitiveness, reflecting their recognition of the long-term value of Hong Kong stocks and strategic determination.
Overall, global markets were generally under pressure this week due to the impact of the deadlock in US-Iran negotiations and rising geopolitical risks. Looking ahead, the market focus will shift to the evolution of the geopolitical situation and the final verification of Q1 earnings. Investors should remain cautious, closely track the progress of the Middle East situation, and focus on high-quality targets with solid fundamentals and stable industry positions. The market involves risks; investment requires caution.
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published on April 24, 2026