CSI 300 down 0.25%
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A-shares maintain an “uptrend,” but major indices shifted into high-level volatile pullbacks this week, presenting a state of “adjustment with heavy volume and structural divergence.” The SSE Index(000001) fell 1.07% this week, dropping below the 5/10-day moving averages (MA), yet remaining above the 20/50/200-day MAs, leaving the medium-term trend intact. Notably, the volume on the last trading day was approximately 12.64% higher than the 50-day average volume; heavy volume during a decline leans more towards profit-taking and accelerated turnover. The CSI 300(000300) fell 0.25% for the week, similarly dropping below the 5/10-day MAs but remaining significantly above the 50/200-day MAs. The last day’s volume was about 14.08% above the 50-day average, indicating capital rebalancing amidst adjustments in heavyweight stocks. The growth sector showed stronger resilience: the Shenzhen Index(399001) fell 0.02% for the week, nearly flat, but saw obvious heavy volume on the last day (about 15.57% above the 50-day average). The ChiNext(399006) rose 3.5% for the week, with the last day’s volume about 13.97% above the 50-day average, showing that capital continued to concentrate in high-elasticity directions during the pullback.
Regarding Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index(HSI) fell 1.63% for the week. It remains above the 50-day MA but slightly below the 200-day MA. Trading volume increased compared to last week, with the heavy volume during the pullback suggesting greater divergence. US stocks maintained a strong upward trend, with the Nasdaq Composite(0NDQC) rising 1.48% and the S & P 500 Index(0S&P5) rising 1.38% for the week; both hit yearly highs and approached one-year peaks.
Looking at US data, rising inflation coupled with oil price volatility has heated up expectations for “higher rates for longer.” April’s unadjusted CPI rose 3.8% year-on-year, higher than the expected 3.7% and significantly above the previous 3.3%, indicating that inflation stickiness has re-emerged. The seasonally adjusted month-on-month CPI of 0.6% was in line with expectations and down from the previous 0.9%, suggesting the single-month shock has eased. However, the rising year-on-year figure will make it harder for the Federal Reserve to pivot quickly to easing. Meanwhile, EIA crude oil inventories saw another massive drawdown of 4.306 million barrels (expected drawdown: 2.051 million; previous: 2.313 million). Against the backdrop of geopolitical risks and supply chain disruptions, this easily pushes up energy prices and inflation expectations; the IMF has also warned that if oil prices remain high, the global economy could enter a recession next year. On the employment and consumption front, initial jobless claims rose to 211,000 (higher than the expected 205,000 and previous 199,000), and the retail sales monthly rate dropped to 0.5% (previous: 1.6%), showing that demand is cooling at the margin but remains resilient. This combination of “high inflation, slowing growth” often corresponds to the Fed maintaining restrictive rates for longer, or even market fears of renewed tightening. A rise in long-term interest rates (such as discussions of the 30-year US Treasury yield “breaking 5”) will also inversely suppress global risk appetite and increase financing costs for businesses and households.
Domestic data shows total volume maintaining reasonable growth, with policy emphasizing “moderate easing + structural optimization + stabilizing expectations.” April financial data showed that in the first four months, the cumulative increase in total social financing was 15.45 trillion yuan, with RMB loans increasing by 8.59 trillion yuan, and the year-on-year growth of outstanding social financing reached 7.8%. Slowing loan growth, continued deleveraging in the household sector, coupled with an increased proportion of direct financing, means credit expansion is transitioning from “heavy on loans” to “equal emphasis on loans + bond and equity financing.” Credit returning to a pace more aligned with nominal economic growth may become the new normal. The corresponding policy orientation is not simply to pursue “volume expansion,” but to enhance the targeted support of financial resources for technological innovation, advanced manufacturing, green transition, and consumer services.
Monetary policy operations are highlighting “maintaining ample liquidity while balancing price and transmission.” The central bank emphasized continuing to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and arranged 300 billion yuan in outright reverse repos. At the same time, the market has formed a judgment that “the possibility of short-term RRR or interest rate cuts is decreasing,” against the background of a mild domestic price recovery, a rebound in PPI, and increased expectations for further upside in CPI/PPI over the next two months. In this scenario, policy is more likely to maintain loose liquidity and guide financing costs downward through open market operations and structural tools, rather than frequently using rate or RRR cuts, to avoid reinforcing inflation expectations during the price recovery phase.
Regarding real economy and structural policies, the focus remains on “expanding domestic demand + reducing costs + moving towards new, green, and smart sectors.” The State Council executive meeting proposed promoting cost reduction, quality improvement, and efficiency enhancement in freight transport. Coupled with the realistic pressure of increased fuel surcharges on domestic flights, this indicates that a key path to stabilizing growth is reducing logistics and service sector costs and improving supply efficiency. The continued strong growth in foreign trade over the first four months and the accelerated upgrading of the export structure help stabilize manufacturing prosperity and employment amidst external volatility. On the consumption side, “policy combinations” are also being used to explore new scenarios (such as the “youth economy”) to expand incremental demand.
In terms of external relations and market expectations, signals released from high-level China-US interactions and business leader visits help improve cross-border trade expectations and foreign investment risk assessments. Coupled with discussions on the attractiveness of Chinese assets driven by earnings recovery, the transmission of policies aimed at “stabilizing growth, the market, and expectations” will be smoother.
At the industry level, the leading sectors this week returned to a “pure technology”(main line), with the top three gains concentrated in “Data Storage — Semiconductor Equipment — Fabless Semiconductors.” Computer-Data Storage(G3578IG.CN) rose about 9.34% for the week; capital concentration was high but retreated on the day, indicating increased divergence after a rapid rise, leaning more towards strong consolidation. Subsequently, it is more suitable to observe “pullback support + renewed heavy volume breakout” to confirm the trend. Elec-Semiconductor Equip(G3674IG.CN) rose about 8.82% for the week, with broad coverage (50 components). Capital extended from the application end to capital expenditures on the manufacturing end and the “hard tech foundation” of domestic substitution, but divergence within the sector will rely more on order visibility and delivery rhythm. Elec-Semicondctor Fablss(G3676IG.CN) rose about 8.67% for the week, reflecting that prosperity elasticity on the design end is still being traded, but it is more sensitive to expectations and valuations. During the index volatility period, volume support is needed to avoid shifting from acceleration to high-level consolidation.
Regarding individual stocks and portfolios, the TOP33 portfolio rose an average of 1.53% this week, with 18 stocks rising and 15 falling; structural opportunities remain. The top gainer was Shenzhen Longsys Electronics(301308), with a weekly gain of 23.03%. It has an O’Neil Score of 60, an RS Rating of 99, an EPS Rating of 81, an Acc/Dis Rating of A+, and an industry rating of 4. Being in a strong industry zone is conducive to trend continuation, but in an environment of index pullback with heavy volume, trading requires more focus on the rhythm of pullback support and renewed heavy volume breakouts to avoid amplified volatility from chasing highs.
In the “uptrend” phase, right-side opportunities can still be sought. However, the index decline accompanied by heavy volume this week, suggests fluctuations in short-term risk appetite. Position advancement is more suitable when synchronized with the diffusion of leading sectors and a renewed warming of volume. Operationally, priority should be given to focusing on leaders within the top 1–40 industry strength rankings that have verifiable fundamentals, an Acc/Dis Rating no lower than C, and healthy technical patterns.
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published on May 15, 2026