CSI 300 Falls 1.48%
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The A-share market maintains its upward trend, but major indices generally retreated this week, indicating a consolidation phase after the previous rapid advance. The SSE Index(000001) fell 1.55% this week, dropping below its 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages, but it remains 0.63% above the 200-day moving average. The CSI 300(000300) declined 1.48%, with Friday’s trading volume 26.84% higher than its 50-day average. Although it failed to hold its highs this week, its strong performance this year has not been completely undermined. Growth styles were relatively more stable, with the Shenzhen Index(399001) and ChiNext(399006) falling 1.55% and 1.37%, respectively. However, both hit new yearly highs this week and remain above their 200-day moving averages, suggesting the medium-term uptrend is intact, albeit with significantly increased short-term volatility.
Overseas markets have increasingly disrupted risk appetite for A-shares. The Nasdaq Composite(0NDQC) fell 4.37% this week, and the S & P 500 Index(0S&P5) dropped 1.91%, with technology stocks showing notable pressure. The Hang Seng Index(HSI) fell 5.24% and hit a new yearly low, reflecting a clear weakening of sentiment in the Hong Kong market.
According to the latest U.S. data, the policy environment remains constrained by “sticky inflation + resilient employment + energy disruption.” Core PCE rose year-on-year to 3.4% in May, higher than the previous 3.3%, indicating that the disinflation process is not smooth. Initial jobless claims for the week of June 20 fell to 215,000, below expectations and the prior figure, showing the labor market remains resilient. EIA crude oil inventories continued to draw down significantly by 6.088 million barrels, stronger than expected, implying that energy supply and demand remain tight. Although U.S.-Iran talks once pushed oil prices down to around $76, attacks on cargo ships, tests of the ceasefire agreement, and OPEC’s internal quota negotiations all indicate that the geopolitical risk premium for oil prices has not disappeared. For the Federal Reserve, this means that even with interest rates at high levels, policy will be difficult to pivot quickly to easing as long as core inflation remains above 3% and employment does not significantly weaken. Williams’ dovish remarks are more about placating the market, but are insufficient to change the main theme of “higher for longer” interest rates.
Domestic policy emphasizes the “synergistic effect of existing and incremental policies.” On one hand, the central bank announced an increased renewal of 500 billion yuan in MLF and used overnight reverse repos to stabilize cross-quarter liquidity, indicating that monetary policy still focuses on precisely supporting the funding landscape and avoiding credit contraction. On the other hand, it has not resorted to a “flood of liquidity” but is seeking a balance between stabilizing the exchange rate, preventing financial arbitrage, and supporting the real economy. The slowdown in infrastructure investment growth in the first five months also requires policies to better connect financial tools with project reserves to stabilize the investment pace in the second half of the year.
The main thread of industrial policy is “energy security + digital infrastructure + advanced manufacturing.” The “15th Five-Year Plan for Building a New Energy System” clarifies the direction of energy transition. Against the backdrop of increased volatility in external oil and gas prices, accelerating the construction of new power systems and energy security systems serves both to stabilize growth and reduce the risk of imported inflation. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the construction of new-generation communication and computing power networks, and five departments launched pilot projects for independent 5G private networks for industry, indicating that policies are combining computing power, communications, and manufacturing digitalization to promote industrial upgrading and efficiency gains. Premier Li’s research trip to Dalian emphasized high-end equipment manufacturing, which also aims to consolidate the foundation of the real economy and enhance the resilience of the industrial chain.
Consumer and opening-up policies are advancing in tandem. Nine departments, including the Ministry of Commerce, issued a document to cultivate after-market automotive consumption, incorporating modifications, racing, and maintenance services into policy support, reflecting a shift in stimulating consumption from “buying cars” to the “entire vehicle usage chain.” Three departments introduced new policies to stabilize foreign investment and increase the openness of the financial sector, while the Ministry of Commerce released measures for investigating the security of industrial and supply chains. This indicates that the current opening-up policy has shifted from simply “bringing in” to emphasizing both “high-level opening up and security governance.” The regulatory authorities have prohibited securities companies from launching new cross-border equity trading businesses, and have issued a series of intense risk warnings for popular A-share companies. Also, reflect that while policies aim to enliven the capital market, they place greater importance on preventing rapid leverage expansion and cross-border arbitrage risks.
At the industry level, the leading theme has further focused on AI hardware and the upstream equipment, midstream memory, and chip design segments of the semiconductor supply chain, with capital concentration higher than in the previous period. Computer-Data Storage(G3578IG.CN) rose 18.53% this week, leading all industries, showing that market funds are still continuously allocating around data center expansion, enterprise storage upgrades, and AI computing infrastructure. Elec-Semiconductor Equip(G3674IG.CN) rose 9.15% this week, demonstrating a high capacity to absorb funds among sample industries. Semiconductor equipment is generally seen as an important indicator of industrial capital expenditure and expectations for domestic substitution. Against the backdrop of continuous policy support for advanced manufacturing, high-end equipment, and self-reliance, the strength of this sector reflects market recognition of the medium- to long-term logic of industrial upgrading. Elec-Semicondctor Fablss(G3676IG.CN) rose 8.02% this week, continuing the active performance in the chip design direction. The fabless semiconductor sector is closely linked to themes such as AI terminals, edge computing, consumer electronics recovery, and the rising penetration of domestic chips, typically featuring both growth and high elasticity.
This week, the Top 33 stocks rose an average of 3.78%, with 14 gainers and 19 decliners. Internal performance continues to diverge, but the strongest individual stocks still show outstanding elasticity. Among them, Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology(001309) surged 33.57%. Gigabyte Semiconductor has consistently performed well in the storage and semiconductor sectors. This is attributed to the recovery of the storage industry’s prosperity, as well as the increased demand for storage modules and control chips from artificial intelligence terminals and data centers. Techwinsemi has a Relative Strength (RS) Rating of 99, indicating its stock price performance over the past year is extremely strong. Its O’Neil Score is 63, EPS Rating is 82, and Acc/Dis Rating is A+, reflecting that both its fundamental growth and capital attention are in a good range. It is one of the representative stocks with high relative strength characteristics in a strong industry.
From a market structure perspective, the current market is not a trend reversal but is closer to high-level oscillation and hotspot rebalancing within an uptrend. Short-term index pullbacks, weakness in overseas tech stocks, and increased risk warnings for high-level themes have made chasing highs more difficult. However, continuous policy support, stable liquidity, and growth indices still being significantly above medium- to long-term moving averages also mean the market has not lost its foundation for bullish positions. Key points to watch going forward are: first, whether core indices can find support near the 10-day or 20-day moving averages; second, whether trading volume can continue to remain in an active range; and third, whether leading directions will reconcentrate on stocks with earnings support and industry strength advantages. In terms of operation, it is more suitable to prioritize stocks in strong O’Neil industries that also have a high Relative Strength Rating, a good EPS Rating, and characteristics of stable capital inflow.
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published on June 26, 2026