Continued Structural Rebound With Funds Flowing Back to Quality Stocks

CSI 300 Up 1.69%

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This week, the A-share market continued its “attempted rebound” trend, with most indices showing gains and trading volumes increasing. The activity levels of certain sectors and individual stocks have significantly improved, leading to a more positive market sentiment compared to last week. The SSE Index(000001) saw a weekly gain of 1.67%, stabilizing above the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages and approaching the 50-day moving average, indicating a gradually clearer mid-term trend. In terms of trading volume, this week saw an increase of about 39% compared to last week, demonstrating enhanced market trading activity. Representing core assets, the CSI 300(000300) also gained 1.69% for the week, reflecting similar dynamics to the SSE Index, indicating that large-cap stocks received significant attention from investors. The performance of small and mid-cap stocks was even better, with the Shenzhen Index(399001) and ChiNext(399006) rising by 2.33% and 2.76% respectively, where ChiNext has rebounded over 54% from its one-year low, showcasing strong technical momentum.

In the overseas markets, U.S. stocks continued their robust performance. Both the Nasdaq Composite(0NDQC) and the S & P 500 Index(0S&P5) hit new annual highs, with weekly gains of 0.78% and 1.06% respectively, driven by strong earnings reports from tech giants. Economic data in the U.S. showed that initial jobless claims for the week ending July 19 were 217,000, lower than expected and previous values, indicating a resilient labor market. Crude oil inventories fell for the third consecutive week, with a decline of 3.169 million barrels, providing some support to commodity prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank unexpectedly raised the deposit facility rate to 2.15% on July 24th, higher than market expectations, signaling its commitment to maintaining a tight monetary policy amid inflationary pressures.

Domestically, June’s total social electricity consumption increased by 5.4% year-on-year, up by 1 percentage point from the previous month, providing a positive signal for the second quarter’s economic operation. Several key policies were implemented this week. The State Council released a series of policies supporting “anti-cutthroat competition,” focusing on reforming price determination mechanisms, anti-dumping rules, and value orientation, aiming to channel resources towards high-quality enterprises. The National Development and Reform Commission also proposed accelerating the revision of the Price Law to strengthen regulatory mechanisms and shift market competition from “price wars” to “innovation and efficiency.” On the policy front, the release of detailed guidelines for cross-border asset management pilot programs in the Hainan Free Trade Port marked another step forward in financial openness, benefiting financial services, logistics, and cross-border investment service companies within the region.

On a macroeconomic level, the IMF indicated this week that it would raise its forecast for global economic growth but warned that intensifying trade frictions could impact medium to long-term expectations. President Trump’s latest statement suggested imposing reciprocal tariffs ranging from 15% to 50%, which could be higher than previously anticipated, introducing uncertainties for global manufacturing chains and export-oriented businesses. Additionally, political uncertainty in the U.S. has increased, with the so-called “Fed renovation scandal” escalating as Trump allies sued Powell and demanded changes to the FOMC system, raising more questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve’s policies, potentially affecting dollar valuation and global capital flows in the long term.

At the sector level, Mining-Metal Ores(G1099IG.CN) led the pack with a 9.63% gain for the week, benefiting from recovering global resource demand and stabilization of strategic mineral prices such as rare earths, resulting in positive outlooks for company performances within the industry. Following closely, Bldg-Cement/Concrt/Ag(G8074IG.CN) rose by 9.2%, despite short-term fundamental pressures, infrastructure and real estate improvement expectations are driving demand recovery and sector rebound. Machinery-Constr/Mining(G3531IG.CN) saw a 7.64% increase, profiting from the resurgence of infrastructure investments and growing demand for mining equipment, enhancing overall sector prosperity. These three sectors all exhibit notable signs of recovery, illustrating the broad-based transmission effect of economic revival.

The TOP33 stock portfolio averaged a 1.87% gain this week, with 20 stocks recording gains, outperforming the broader market, highlighting ongoing structural opportunities for high-quality stocks. From an individual stock perspective, Shenghe Resources Hdg. ‘A'(600392) achieved a 31.24% gain for the week, becoming the strongest performer in the TOP33 portfolio. The company specializes in rare earth smelting and deep processing, boasting comprehensive global layouts and control over scarce resources, with products widely applied in strategic areas such as new energy and military industries. Its RS Rating is as high as 98, ranking 11th in the industry, suggesting alignment between technical trends and industry trends. Although its EPS Rating stands at 46, indicating room for improvement, its O’Neil Score reached 77, representing a solid overall fundamental performance.

Overall, with continuous policy implementation and modest improvements in fundamentals, the market is expected to continue its structural rebound trend. However, considering that short-term indices are approaching certain resistance levels, it is advised to focus on quality stocks with high O’Neil Scores, leading industry rankings, and strong RS Ratings under the premise of controlling positions.

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Notice: Information contained herein is not and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell securities. It is for educational purposes only.

published on July 25, 2025

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