CSI 300 Rises 3.44%
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A-shares maintained the assessment of a “stalled uptrend” this week, but index performance showed clear recovery, characterized by heavyweight stocks providing a foundation and growth stocks broadening their gains. The SSE Index(000001)rose 1.46% for the week, reclaiming the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages. It was only 0.15% away from the 50-day moving average and 2.41% above the 200-day moving average, indicating that the main board has returned to its medium-term upward channel, albeit with a still-moderate upward slope. On the final trading day, trading volume increased by 3.84% compared to the 50-day average, reflecting a mild expansion in volume. The CSI 300(000300) gained 3.44% for the week, trailing its one-year high by only 1.77%. Notably, its final-day trading volume surged by 31.29% above the 50-day average, indicating a significant increase in institutional participation in heavyweight blue chips, which supported market stability. Growth styles significantly outperformed heavyweight and defensive sectors this week. The Shenzhen Index(399001) rose 7.13% for the week, just 1.09% below its one-year high. The ChiNext(399006) climbed 11.02%, hitting a new yearly high during the week and currently trailing its one-year peak by a mere 0.46%.
In the Hong Kong stock market, the Hang Seng Index(HSI) fell 3.21% for the week, standing just 0.99% above its one-year low and trading below major moving averages. This reflects the offshore market’s continued sensitivity to external liquidity and geopolitical variables. Overseas markets showed little overall divergence. The Nasdaq Composite(0NDQC) rose 0.51% for the week, remaining above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages but slipping back below the 20-day moving average. The S & P 500 Index(0S&P5) dipped 0.15% for the week, also facing short-term pressure from the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages.
The divergence in domestic and international economic policies has further deepened. In the U.S., the May retail sales month-on-month rate reached 0.9%, significantly exceeding expectations and the previous value, indicating that consumer spending remains highly resilient. Meanwhile, EIA crude oil inventories dropped sharply by 8.263 million barrels during the same period, reflecting still-tight energy supply and demand. Strong consumption and elevated oil prices suggest that U.S. inflationary pressures have not truly subsided, further justifying the Federal Reserve’s rationale for maintaining high interest rates.
Against this backdrop, although the Fed kept the upper limit of the interest rate unchanged at 3.75% in June, its policy stance is not accommodative but rather “hawkish amid inaction.” Multiple institutions judge that the Fed is highly unlikely to cut rates this year, and the probability of a rate hike is even rising toward the fourth quarter, especially in December. Fundamentally, the core of U.S. monetary policy is no longer “when to ease,” but “how to prevent inflation and expectations from resurging.” If U.S. Treasury yields remain high going forward, coupled with the impact of quantitative tightening, the global liquidity environment will remain tight. A stronger dollar and rising capital costs will also exert spillover pressure on emerging market exchange rates, capital flows, and risk asset pricing.
In contrast, China’s policy focus is more distinctly placed on stabilizing growth, securing employment, expanding domestic demand, and promoting transformation. The State Council issued the “15th Five-Year Plan” for employment-first strategy, indicating that employment remains the priority target of macroeconomic regulation. This is because stable employment provides the foundation for residents’ income, consumption capacity, and market expectations. Meanwhile, policymakers have repeatedly emphasized intensifying efforts to expand domestic demand, implying that fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies will continue to focus on repairing endogenous demand.
Regarding monetary policy, the central bank proposed improving the short-end interest rate regulation mechanism and studying the establishment of non-bank liquidity support tools for specific scenarios. This sends two important signals: first, continuing to maintain reasonably ample liquidity to stabilize market interest rate expectations; and second, enhancing the resilience of the financial system to prevent localized fluctuations from escalating into systemic risks. This demonstrates that China is not currently relying on “flood-like stimulus” to boost the economy, but is instead emphasizing precise regulation, smooth policy transmission, and a stable financial environment.
In terms of capital market and financial reforms, regulators are strictly cracking down on concept speculation and market manipulation disguised as tech innovation, while continuously advancing reforms to the “Two Innovation Boards” (STAR Market and ChiNext), supporting M&A restructurings and refinancing. This reflects a policy approach that balances “strong regulation” with “promoting financing.” Concurrently, steady progress in building Shanghai as an international financial center, Pudong’s offshore financial reforms, and the expansion of cross-border payment networks indicate that China is enhancing its financial resource allocation capabilities through institutional opening-up, better serving technological innovation and the real economy. From a longer-term perspective, breakthroughs in computing power networks, the “Six Networks,” integrated advancement of education, technology, and talent, as well as silicon-based quantum chips, show that China’s industrial policy is synergizing technological innovation, infrastructure upgrades, and institutional reforms to cultivate a “second growth space.”
At the sector level, the leading structure has further concentrated on “computing infrastructure + high-speed connections + electronics distribution chain” compared to earlier periods, indicating that the main capital theme has refocused on a purer AI hardware and telecommunications chain. Wholesale-Electronics(G3577IG.CN) rose approximately 21.52% for the week. The electronic component distribution and wholesale segments benefited from inventory restocking expectations and a recovery in industry chain prosperity. However, due to fewer constituent stocks and higher elasticity, short-term volatility tends to be greater. Computer-Data Storage(G3578IG.CN) gained about 20.29% for the week, showing that capital continues to concentrate on data centers, storage expansion, and AI computing infrastructure. This direction exhibits strong trend intensity, but after a rapid price increase, it is crucial to observe the quality of support during pullbacks and the ability to expand volume again. Telecom-Fiber Optics(G3552IG.CN) rose roughly 19.03% for the week, reflecting continuously rising market expectations for high-speed transmission, optical communication upgrades, and computing power network construction, representing a direction with “high prosperity + high capital participation.”
At the individual stock level, the Top 33 stocks achieved an average weekly gain of 14.40%, with 30 rising and only 3 falling. The strongest stock, Shareate Tools Ltd(688257), surged 35.03%. The company specializes in the R&D, production, and sales of cemented carbide and tools, benefiting from resource extraction, overseas mining capital expenditures, and the domestic substitution logic for high-end tools. Its O’Neil Score of 69, RS Rating of 99, and EPS Rating of 98 demonstrate advantages in both price momentum and earnings growth. However, its industry rating of 87 is not dominant, implying that its strength stems more from company-level competitiveness and prosperity catalysts rather than overall industry resonance.
Looking at the coordination between indices and sectors, the A-share recovery this week relied more on the resonance of growth stock counterattacks and heavyweight stability, but the market trend has not yet switched to a comprehensive bull run. If the CSI 300 continues to expand volume as it approaches its previous highs, and the ChiNext maintains healthy volume-price dynamics after hitting new highs, the market is expected to gradually shift from a “stalled uptrend” to a more aggressive attacking structure. Conversely, if growth stocks shrink in volume and weaken after rapidly moving away from moving averages, or if defensive sectors regain dominance in the rotation, the market may return to range-bound consolidation. Currently, it is more suitable to prioritize stocks with top-tier RS Ratings and EPS Ratings, and an Acc/Dis Rating no weaker than C. Particular attention should be paid to stocks in strong sectors or those benefiting from policy catalysts that can attract buying support after pullbacks.
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published on June 18, 2026