CSI 300 Fell 2.19%
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The A-share market is currently in an “attempted rebound” phase, but the main indices experienced a wider pullback this week with volumes retreating compared to last week, indicating a fragile foundation for the rebound. The SSE Index(000001) fell -3.38% this week, with the final day’s trading volume being about -5.27% lower than the 50-day average, and the index retreated below the 5/10/20/50-day moving averages, yet it remained approximately +3.41% above the 200-day moving average, showing medium-term support still exists but short-term pressure is evident. The CSI 300(000300) fell -2.19% for the week, with the final day’s volume being about -5.95% lower than the 50-day average, similarly retreating below the 5/10/20/50-day moving averages, and was approximately +3.24% above the 200-day moving average, with larger pullbacks in the weight segment hindering market trend recovery. The divergence on the growth side is more pronounced; the Shenzhen Index(399001) fell -2.90% for the week with its volume about -12.57% lower than the 50-day average, while the ChiNext(399006) rose +1.26% for the week and hit a yearly high, standing above the 5/10/20/50-day moving averages, reflecting that funds are more inclined towards a few high-elasticity directions in a weak market environment.
In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index(HSI) fell -0.74% this week, but the final day’s trading volume increased by about +24.70% compared to the 50-day average, indicating an increase in trading activity and intensified fund competition during the decline. Overseas markets remain in a downward trend zone, with the Nasdaq Composite(0NDQC) falling -0.07% and the S & P 500 Index(0S&P5) falling -0.39% for the week, both positioned near the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, making risk assets more sensitive to inflation and interest rate expectations.
In the US, employment remains strong. Initial jobless claims for the week ending March 14th dropped to 205,000, significantly lower than the expected 215,000 and down from the previous value of 213,000, indicating a tight labor market and sustained economic resilience. In this context, the Federal Reserve maintained the upper limit of interest rates at 3.75% unchanged on March 18th, aligning with the “cautious wait-and-see” policy logic: robust employment means there’s no need to cut interest rates to “rescue growth,” and policies focus more on inflation and financial conditions. In the Eurozone, the European Central Bank also kept the deposit facility rate at 2% unchanged on March 19th, indicating that major economies’ monetary policies have entered a “pause button” phase amid high uncertainty.
However, what truly disrupts expectations is energy. For the week ending March 13th, EIA crude oil inventories increased by 6.156 million barrels, far exceeding the expected 383,000 barrels, which would typically be bearish for oil prices based on supply-demand fundamentals; however, market pricing is more influenced by security risks in the Strait of Hormuz, shipping detours, and geopolitical escalation, where supply-side risk premiums may overshadow inventory signals, leading to high volatility or even a “roller coaster” effect in oil prices. This has triggered two policy chains: firstly, if high oil prices continue to raise inflation expectations, the market will further reduce expectations of interest rate cuts, potentially even sparking narratives of “global re-tightening”; secondly, if energy costs erode household and corporate cash flows, concerns about “high oil prices stifling growth” may arise. Current disagreements (with some anticipating rising interest rates while others find them unreasonable) indicate growing sensitivity of global asset prices to geopolitics and inflation, with policymakers emphasizing “data-driven decisions and avoiding overinterpretation of short-term shocks.”
Domestic policies focus more on “stabilizing expectations, stabilizing finance, and promoting a unified large market.” The central bank clearly stated its commitment to maintaining the stability of financial markets such as stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange, and the foreign exchange management department strengthened monitoring and early warning of cross-border capital flows, reflecting efforts to stabilize financial conditions and risk appetite during periods of heightened external volatility to avoid self-reinforcing market fluctuations. On the interest rate front, the March LPR remained unchanged (1-year at 3.0%, over 5 years at 3.5%), consistent with a strategy balancing “stable growth + risk prevention”: under constraints of bank interest margin pressures and funding supply-demand balance, it is more likely to improve policy transmission efficiency through structural tools, financing system reforms, and fiscal coordination rather than relying on comprehensive interest rate cuts.
Regarding structural reforms, the State Administration for Market Regulation emphasized breaking local protectionism and market segmentation, rectifying “internal competition,” aiming to shift growth back to innovation and efficiency from low-price homogeneous competition; multiple regions have introduced new science and technology policies and promoted hydrogen energy integrated application pilots, corresponding to mid-to-long-term layouts of “new quality productivity” and energy alternatives. In real estate, the Financial Regulatory Bureau proposed accelerating the establishment of financing systems adapted to “new models of real estate development,” and the natural resources sector suggested that newly added construction land should not generally be used for commercial real estate development, signaling a policy focus shift from “incremental expansion” to “controlling increments, destocking, optimizing supply, and revitalizing existing stock,” using a more sustainable approach to stabilize the real estate and financial systems.
Next week, 546 stocks will release earnings reports, entering the earnings season, with individual stock volatility and differentiation expected to rise, increasing sensitivity to fundamental performance realization and guidance changes in trading.
On the industry level, despite the broader index pullbacks, funds are still seeking relative certainty between “inventory improvement—computing hardware—telecommunications infrastructure,” with the top three performing industries this week reinforcing the resonance of “post-real estate cycle services—AI data base—optical interconnection construction.” Bldg-Maintenance & Svc(G7340IG.CN) rose about 10.58% for the week, with a daily gain of about +3.7649%, benefiting from expectations of urban renewal, existing home renovations, and property service upgrades, with relatively stable order and cash flow attributes, making it easier to attract funds in a weak market. Computer-Data Storage(G3578IG.CN) rose about 3.7% for the week, reflecting ongoing demand expectations driven by AI computing power expansion, but a daily drop of about -4.768% showed significant divergences before and after the earnings season, shifting from “prosperity trading” to “earnings validation,” requiring tracking of server shipments, enterprise-level storage orders, and gross margin changes. Telecom-Fiber Optics(G3552IG.CN) rose about 2.05% for the week, with a daily gain of about +3.544% and active trading (approximately RMB 70.424 billion), related to communication network expansion, data center interconnections, and optical interconnection themes; however, weekly gains were relatively moderate, with sustainability depending on subsequent continuous volume increases and order implementation signals.
Regarding individual stocks and portfolios, the top 33 averaged a decline of -5.88% this week, with 8 stocks rising and 25 declining, indicating low tolerance for errors in the “attempted rebound” environment and intensifying strength differentiation. Nanjing Sunlord Electronics(300975) led the gains with an O’Neil Score of 75, RS Rating of 91, EPS Rating of 70, Acc/Dis Rating of A-, and an industry rating of 70. Its relative strength remained in a higher range, but the industry rating was relatively lower, making its performance more dependent on individual catalysts and fund preferences, with greater attention needed during the earnings season on performance realization and inventory and demand rhythm impacting future guidance.
Maintain a moderate position in the “attempted rebound” environment, using price-volume synergy and trend continuation as prerequisites for adding positions, avoiding blindly increasing risk exposure when indices break through multiple short and medium-term moving averages. Externally, oil price fluctuations and geopolitical events may amplify uncertainties around inflation and interest rate expectations; entering the earnings season, performance and guidance will become dominant variables. Operationally, focus on industry leaders ranked 1-40 with verifiable fundamentals, Acc/Dis Ratings of C or better, and healthy technical patterns, using a 5%-8% risk control range to manage drawdowns and enhance capital efficiency.
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Notice: Information contained herein is not and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell securities. It is for educational purposes only.
published on March 20, 2026