CSI 300 Dips 0.82%
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A-shares remain in a “stalled uptrend.” This week, index performance diverged with an overall weak tone, and market fatigue has deepened. The SSE Index(000001) rose 0.09% for the week. Although it barely closed in positive territory, it only managed to stay above the 5-day moving average, remaining below the 10/20/50-day moving averages. It is approximately -1.19% and -0.93% below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, respectively, and just about +1.14% above the 200-day moving average. On the final trading day, trading volume was roughly +18.58% above the 50-day average volume; however, total weekly volume actually dipped slightly from the previous week. This indicates that while there is some speculative buying support in the short term, the strength of the trend recovery remains insufficient. The CSI 300(000300) fell 0.82% for the week, also sitting only about +2.99% above its 200-day moving average. On the last trading day, its volume surged significantly to +36.4% above the 50-day average, highlighting noticeable capital turnover and divergence amid the adjustment of heavyweight stocks. Growth sectors faced even greater pressure, with the Shenzhen Index(399001) dropping 2.29% and the ChiNext(399006) falling 3.22% for the week. Both indices broke below their 5/10/20-day moving averages. Although they remain significantly above the 200-day moving average, the short-term recovery rhythm was clearly disrupted, reflecting declining investor appetite for chasing prices in high-beta directions.
In the Hong Kong and overseas markets, the Hang Seng Index(HSI) declined 0.98% for the week. It stayed above the 5-day moving average but remained below the 10/20/50/200-day moving averages. Volume expanded by 11.87% on the final trading day, showing a technical rebound amid weakness. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks continued to consolidate at high levels. The Nasdaq Composite(0NDQC) gained 0.39% and the S & P 500 Index(0S&P5) rose 0.14% for the week. Both remain above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages but have fallen below their 10-day and 20-day moving averages, indicating an enhanced pattern of high-level consolidation.
Overseas, inflation and energy disruptions are reinforcing the “cautiously tight” policy stance of major central banks. The U.S. May CPI rose to 4.2% year-on-year, up from the previous 3.8%, returning to the “4% era.” The month-on-month increase of 0.5% was in line with expectations and slightly slower than the previous 0.6%, suggesting that the single-month upward momentum has not continued to accelerate. However, the year-on-year rebound implies that inflation stickiness remains strong. Meanwhile, U.S. EIA crude oil inventories fell sharply by 7.227 million barrels for the week, significantly exceeding the expected drawdown of 3.974 million barrels. Coupled with the volatile U.S.-Iran situation, upside risks to energy prices remain high, which will continue to elevate U.S. inflation expectations.
From a growth and employment perspective, the U.S. economy is presenting a complex combination of “high inflation and weakening employment.” Initial jobless claims rose to 229,000, exceeding both expectations and the previous value, indicating a marginal weakening of the labor market. However, against the backdrop of resurgent inflation, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to pivot to easing in the short term, and market expectations for “no rate cuts this year” are strengthening. In other words, the core focus of U.S. policy has shifted from “when to cut rates” to “how long high rates will be maintained.” Consequently, the global interest rate center and U.S. dollar asset yields will remain elevated.
In Europe, the European Central Bank raised its deposit facility rate to 2.25%, reflecting growing vigilance toward inflation. The synchronized cautious stance of European and U.S. central banks means the global liquidity environment is unlikely to become accommodative. Emerging markets will continue to face external constraints such as exchange rate fluctuations, capital flow volatility, and external demand uncertainties.
Domestically, policy priorities do not involve simple “flood-like stimulus,” but rather focus on three main lines—”technology, investment, and foreign trade”—based on stabilizing growth. In May, domestic CPI declined month-on-month, but the year-on-year increase in PPI hit a nearly 46-month high, reflecting that upstream price pressures persist and end-market demand recovery remains uneven. Therefore, macro policies are highly likely to maintain a prudent and slightly accommodative stance, placing greater emphasis on structural efforts rather than comprehensive, aggressive stimulus.
Specifically, the State Council Executive Meeting made deployments regarding building a strong science and technology nation, major technological missions, and data-empowered artificial intelligence. This indicates that policy is positioning innovation and new quality productive forces as the drivers for medium- to long-term growth. The accelerated advancement of underground pipeline network renovations, urban renewal, and major water conservancy projects during the “15th Five-Year Plan” period demonstrates that fiscal and infrastructure investments continue to serve the functions of stabilizing demand and employment. At the same time, the Ministry of Commerce emphasized adopting more pragmatic measures to stabilize exports and expand imports. Combined with institutional assessments that export momentum will remain strong, foreign trade continues to be a crucial pillar in hedging domestic demand fluctuations.
Sector performance aligns more closely with the current “stalled uptrend” market environment, with leadership shifting toward more defensive sectors such as “post-real estate cycle recovery, financial defense, and pharmaceutical distribution.” Bldg-Maintenance & Svc(G7340IG.CN) rose 5.21% for the week. Although catalyzed by policies on urban renewal, underground pipeline network renovations, and dilapidated housing reconstruction, post-real estate cycle segments have gained some recovery expectations. However, with only eight constituent stocks, the sector mostly reflects thematic rotation. Banks-Money Center(G6020IG.CN) gained 4.89% for the week. Against the backdrop of policies aimed at stabilizing growth, preventing risks, and supporting the real economy, the large-cap financial sector, characterized by low valuations and high dividends, continues to play a defensive allocation role. Medical-Whlsle Drg/Suppl(G5022IG.CN) rose 4.39% for the week. Supported by expectations of livelihood security, medical supply, and domestic demand recovery, the pharmaceutical distribution sector also saw capital inflows. Current sector rotation has shifted from high-beta growth to sectors with policy support and more predictable cash flows, reflecting that market risk appetite remains cautious.
Regarding individual stocks and portfolios, the Top 33 stocks experienced an average weekly decline of about 0.56%, with 14 advancing and 19 declining, indicating that the range of strong stocks continues to narrow. Among them, Guangdong Dtech Technology(301377) led the gains with a weekly increase of approximately 19.04%. Its O’Neil Score is 70, RS Rating is 99, EPS Rating is 98, Acc/Dis Rating is A+, and Industry Rating is 10, making it a stock that combines solid fundamentals with strong relative strength. In a weak market environment, high RS Rating stocks like this are more likely to attract capital clustering, but they also rely more heavily on pullbacks that hold key support levels and renewed volume expansion at critical price points to sustain their strength.
During the “stalled uptrend” phase, traders should exercise greater caution. Position sizing should be managed prudently, with a focus on observing whether the indices can reclaim the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, and whether leading sectors can form new volume-price resonance. When screening stocks, priority should still be given to leading stocks with an Industry Strength ranking between 1 and 40, an Acc/Dis Rating no lower than C, and intact technical patterns. Investors should avoid chasing short-term momentum pulses during periods of insufficient volume and widening divergence.
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published on June 12, 2026