CSI 300 fell by 1.07%
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The A-share market has transitioned into a “downtrend” state, with indices generally retreating and no significant volume increase to support prices, leading to a cautious risk appetite. The SSE Index(000001) fell -0.93% this week, with the final day’s trading volume about -2.56% lower than its 50-day average, short-term falling close to below the 5/10-day moving averages but still around +0.26% higher than the 20-day moving average and approximately +1.23% and +8.77% higher than the 50/200-day moving averages, indicating that the medium-term trend remains intact but short-term pressure is increasing. The CSI 300(000300) fell -1.07% for the week, located about -0.64% below its 50-day moving average, and the gap with the 20-day moving average also weakened. Growth stocks saw more pronounced pullbacks, with the Shenzhen Index(399001) declining -2.22% and the ChiNext(399006) falling -2.45%, and both had their last day’s volume down about -11.38% and -10.9% respectively compared to their 50-day averages, reflecting more capital withdrawal from high-volatility sectors.
In terms of Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index(HSI) fell -3.28% for the week, with trading volume approximately 1.35 times larger than the previous week, and was still about 14.47% above its 50-day average on the final day. The index approached its 200-day moving average (around +0.63% away), with external market volatility having a more direct impact on investor sentiment in Hong Kong. Overseas markets were relatively stable but experienced increased volatility, with the Nasdaq Composite(0NDQC) up +0.36% for the week and volume increased by about +27.87% on the final day, while the S & P 500 Index(0S&P5) declined -0.70% and volume increased by about +6.98%, as risk appetite rebalanced across sectors.
On the US front, growth and employment resilience remain. Initial jobless claims for the week ending February 28 stood at 213,000, unchanged from the previous value and below the expected 215,000, showing that the labor market did not cool significantly; ADP employment increased by 63,000 in February, significantly higher than the expected 11,000; the ISM Manufacturing PMI for February was 52.4, an improvement from the previous 51.8 and in expansion territory, indicating a recovery in manufacturing prosperity. This set of data suggests that the US economy does not currently meet the conditions for “rapid interest rate cuts”. Meanwhile, EIA crude oil inventories increased by 3.475 million barrels, although significantly lower than the previous 15.989 million barrels, it was still above expectations, which would put downward pressure on oil prices if only considering inventory levels. However, the situation in the Middle East has escalated sharply, with risks in the Strait of Hormuz and shipping rerouting expectations rising, potentially reigniting inflation through energy prices and freight rates. Therefore, the market has begun discussing a “zero interest rate cut scenario”, whose core logic is: once war shocks turn from short-term disturbances to sustained supply constraints, the Federal Reserve will lean towards prioritizing controlling inflation over promoting growth. Coupled with the US pushing for global tariffs and facing resistance from lawsuits in multiple states, tariff uncertainties could lead companies to temporarily “rush import/export”, causing inventory and price fluctuations and exacerbating global trade friction and supply chain realignment.
In China, signals released during the Two Sessions leaned more towards “stability in total quantity, progress in structure”. The government work report emphasized continuing to implement moderately loose monetary policy, with the People’s Bank of China conducting RMB 800 billion three-month outright reverse repurchase operations on March 6, demonstrating the aim to stabilize liquidity and reduce capital fluctuations through open market operations and innovative tools, providing an environment for entity financing and expectation repair. On the fiscal side, there is a notable emphasis on being “more proactive”: the deficit ratio is planned to be arranged around 4%, with a deficit scale of about RMB 5.89 trillion, while simultaneously arranging RMB 250 billion in treasury bonds to support trade-ins and setting aside RMB 100 billion to boost domestic demand, indicating that expanding effective demand remains key to stabilizing growth, with policies focusing more on directing funds towards consumption upgrades, addressing livelihood deficiencies, and areas with strong driving force.
Structural policies revolve around “new quality productivity” and deepening reforms: the work report and the draft outline for the “15th Five-Year Plan” emphasize major projects and full-chain tech financial services, coupled with deployments in artificial intelligence, integrated circuits, and future industries, suggesting that subsequent actions may likely involve industry funds, venture capital support, optimization of capital market systems, and SOE reform synergies to solve hard-tech issues like “difficult financing and conversion”, promoting innovation from R&D to industrialization and scaling. In the real estate sector, the report proposes city-specific policies to control new additions, destock, optimize supply, and explore multi-channel revitalization of existing commercial properties, shifting the focus from merely stimulating sales to “stabilizing expectations + destocking + ensuring delivery + optimizing supply”, adopting a more sustainable approach to reducing risks and stabilizing household balance sheets. Enhancing basic pensions and medical insurance subsidies also helps strengthen consumption capacity and security, supporting domestic demand recovery.
At the industry level, despite weakening indices, capital is concentrating defensively towards upstream oil and gas and steady cash flow service chains. The top three industries with gains this week reinforced the resonance of “upstream supply risk—oilfield service orders—post-cycle property services”. Oil&Gas-Intl Expl&Prod(G1315IG.CN) rose about 12.67% for the week, with upstream assets and production elasticity easier to be priced by capital amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and shipping disruptions raising supply-side risk premiums. Oil&Gas-Field Services(G1380IG.CN) rose about 7.36%, directly benefiting from mid-term expectations of oil and gas capital expenditures and drilling completion workloads, with industry retracement also reflecting profit-taking, thus investment should focus more on order visibility, equipment utilization, and settlement rhythms rather than simply following oil price fluctuations. Bldg-Maintenance & Svc(G7340IG.CN) rose about 6.92%, under the policy direction of “stabilizing real estate and revitalizing existing stock”, maintenance, property management, and community services for existing homes have relatively stronger certainty, possessing characteristics of cash flow and low volatility.
In terms of portfolios and individual stocks, the top 33 averaged a decline of -2.62% this week, with 8 stocks rising and 25 falling, reflecting the feature of “minority strength, majority retreat” during a downtrend. Ningxia Baofeng Energy Gp(600989) performed the best, with an O’Neil Score of 87, RS Rating of 90, EPS Rating of 97, Acc/Dis Rating of B+, and industry rating of 26. The company’s business centers around modern coal chemicals, covering methanol, olefins, polyethylene, polypropylene, and extending to fine chemicals, benefiting from cost advantages brought by an integrated industry chain and scaled facilities; during periods of greater oil price and external supply chain volatility, the cost hedging attribute of “coal replacing oil” is more easily reassessed by the market.
Maintain a moderate defensive position in a ‘downtrend’ environment, using volume-price coordination and trend restoration as prerequisites for increasing positions, avoiding blindly chasing prices when indices rebound but volumes are insufficient. Externally, volatility in overseas growth stocks, tariff uncertainties, and changes in oil prices/inventory may still cause emotional disturbances; however, given domestically reasonable liquidity, gradual implementation of stabilization policies, and ongoing industrial upgrading, priority can be given to tracking leaders within the top 40 industries with earnings certainty and cash flow advantages, and waiting for reversal signals from indices and broader sector leadership before increasing risk exposure.
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published on March 6, 2026