CSI 300 Up 1.08%
Editor’s Note: As always, we would appreciate any feedback you have. It will help us make this app more useful to you.
A-shares remain in a “rebound attempt” phase, with indices rising this week accompanied by localized volume increases, showing improved rebound quality compared to earlier periods. However, confirmation of the trend depends on whether there will be continued upward momentum and broader incremental capital inflows. The SSE Index(000001) rose 1.98% this week, with the last day’s trading volume up 6.86% compared to the 50-day average, just about -0.67% away from its one-year high, and back above the 5/10/20/50/200-day moving averages, indicating enhanced short-term momentum. The CSI 300(000300) gained 1.08% for the week, with the last day’s volume up 9.25% compared to the 50-day average, situated approximately +7.90% above the 200-day moving average, providing support to heavyweight sectors. The Shenzhen Index(399001) increased by 2.80% this week and hit an annual high, just about -0.28% away from its one-year peak, demonstrating a stronger medium-term trend than other broad-based indices; theChiNext(399006) rose 1.05%, standing roughly +1.04% above the 50-day moving average and maintaining an advantage of around +19.44% over the 200-day moving average.
In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index(HSI) rose 0.82% for the week, with the last day’s trading volume surging significantly by +19.34% compared to the 50-day average, indicating a notable increase in market activity. Overseas markets are trending sideways: currently, theNasdaq Composite(0NDQC) fell -0.03% weekly and the S & P 500 Index(0S&P5) declined -0.01% weekly, both with volumes higher than their 50-day averages, suggesting that external risks have not significantly escalated.
In the US, employment remains stable. Initial jobless claims for the week ending February 21st were 212,000, lower than the expected 215,000 but slightly higher than the previous value of 208,000, indicating that the labor market has not notably weakened. For the Federal Reserve, this reduces the necessity for “rapid interest rate cuts,” making monetary policy more likely to rely on data and proceed cautiously. The key variable for inflation lies in energy: EIA crude oil inventories surged by 15.989 million barrels, far exceeding expectations of 1.481 million barrels. This could temporarily suppress oil prices and ease energy-related inflation but also reflects demand fluctuations and changes in trade flows. Coupled with recurring Middle East tensions and negotiation progress, oil prices remain susceptible to event-driven volatility, making the path of inflation decline uneven.
Greater uncertainty comes from trade and financial conditions. The Supreme Court ruling that large-scale tariffs are illegal and the suspension of related tariff collections by Customs indicate that US trade policies are constrained by legal boundaries. However, threats of “alternative solutions” and additional tariffs on certain industries persist, implying that tariff tools may shift from being a blanket approach to industry-specific and compliance-focused measures (such as anti-dumping and subsidy investigations), causing disruptions to corporate costs and supply chain arrangements. Additionally, restrictions on private debt redemptions raise concerns about a repeat of the subprime mortgage crisis, coupled with divergences within the Fed regarding economic prospects, leading to greater volatility in market perceptions of interest rate paths and risk asset valuations.
In China, policies emphasize “stabilizing expectations, liquidity, and structural adjustments.” The central bank has continuously increased MLF operations and supported cross-border RMB interbank financing, signaling intentions to maintain reasonable liquidity abundance and stabilize credit environments, focusing on structural transmission rather than flooding the market. Key areas include technological innovation, manufacturing upgrades, private small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing real estate chains. The strengthening of the RMB mid-price and discussions about “stability factors” post-holiday reflect policy efforts to manage exchange rates and cross-border capital flow expectations while ensuring growth stability.
As we enter the “Two Sessions” period, fiscal and industrial policies are expected to further focus on “technological innovation and high-quality development.” Various local fiscal roadmaps highlight technology investments, combining the judgment that AI is returning to commercial essence from a “money-burning competition” and domestic chips are seizing opportunities in inference applications. Policy combinations are more likely to promote computing power and application implementation through coordinated fiscal funds, industrial policies, and capital market reforms, enhancing long-term growth momentum. In terms of real estate and livelihood, Shanghai has further reduced purchase restrictions, with the market expecting “volume increase and price stabilization,” reflecting deepening city-specific policies aimed at stabilizing expectations, preventing risks, and driving related domestic demand recovery; the State Council’s promotion of elderly economy and elderly care services aims to cultivate service consumption as a medium-to-long-term pillar.
On the external front, export controls against Japan and economic cooperation with Germany show that China is becoming stricter on critical technologies and safety bottom lines while expanding pragmatic cooperation to counter external pressures. The fluctuating US stance on tariffs towards China means that foreign trade enterprises still need to strengthen compliance and diversify markets. Foreign central banks’ net selling of US Treasury bonds reflects a trend toward reserve diversification, which could impact US interest rates and global capital flows in the medium to long term.
Regarding sector performance, the main capital flow has shifted from previous service consumption to resources and upstream cycles, with the top three gaining sectors highlighting the resonance of “Oil & Gas-Machinery/Equip”, “Mining-Metal Ores”, and “Chemicals-Agricultural”: Oil&Gas-Machinery/Equip(G3533IG.CN) sector rose by about 13.11% for the week, with upstream equipment orders showing greater elasticity amid recovering oil and gas capital expenditures, equipment updates, and advancements in domestic substitution. Meanwhile, increased EIA inventory volatility makes oil price expectations more prone to fluctuations, benefiting oil service and equipment segments more from medium-to-long-term development investments rather than short-term oil price movements alone. Mining-Metal Ores(G1099IG.CN) rose by about 12.22%, reflecting capital reassessment of resource security, restocking cycles, and price elasticity; under unstable overseas interest rates and geopolitical risks, metal resource sectors are more likely to attract hedging attention but require tracking of metal prices and downstream demand sustainability. Chemicals-Agricultural(G1800IG.CN) rose by about 11.17%, linked to spring planting preparations, policies for stabilizing grain supplies, and prosperity in the phosphorus chemical chain. Industry profitability is highly sensitive to product prices and costs (sulfur, ore, energy), with companies possessing integrated operations and cost advantages better positioned to capitalize on profit elasticity driven by prosperity fluctuations.
In terms of portfolios and individual stocks, the top 33 averaged a gain of +6.48% this week, with 24 stocks rising and 9 declining, showing significant diffusion of the rebound. The best performer was Kunming Chuan Jin Nuo Chemical(300505), with a weekly gain of +34.39%, an O’Neil score of 80, RS Rating of 95, EPS Rating of 85, Accumulation/Distribution Rating of A+, and an industry rating of 21. Under the central government’s long-term direction towards agricultural modernization and securing grain supply, the phosphorus chemical industry chain is heavily influenced by supply-demand dynamics and price elasticity. Companies with low-cost and integrated advantages are more resilient during prosperity fluctuations; short-term considerations should combine volume and buying point discipline to avoid chasing highs during accelerated sentiment phases.
In a “rebound attempt” environment, maintain moderate positions, using volume-price coordination and trend continuation as prerequisites for increasing positions, avoiding blindly chasing prices when indices approach phase highs. Externally, fluctuations in overseas growth stocks, tariffs, and energy inventory changes may still cause emotional disturbances; however, given the domestically maintained reasonable liquidity abundance, steady growth policies, and ongoing industrial upgrades, fundamentally verifiable, industry-leading, and technically healthy stocks are more likely to receive sustained attention in subsequent market performances.
What do you think? Please email us any questions or comments.
Notice: Information contained herein is not and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell securities. It is for educational purposes only.
published on February 27, 2026